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• The possibilities and impossibilities of Hungarian public debt

  26-42

  Laszlo Torok

  Views:

  374

  The topic of the present study is the hypothetical, ex ante nature examination of Hungary’s gross consolidated public debt. The study defines the most important concepts and correlations, the judgments on the different degrees of public debt, the development of the Hungarian public debt, its main stages and characteristics. The study then presents a macroeconomic framework, which can predict the future output values of the public debt commensurable to GDP, depending on the parameters of the main explanatory variables. The establishment of input values of the main macroeconomic aggregates, as endogenous variables, is based on the author’s extrapolation and other empirical studies. Applying these, the values of the future public debt rates can be forecasted. The present study intends to show that the explanatory (economic) variables currently have well established values, which, if inserted into the chosen macroeconomic forecasting framework, show that the Hungarian public debt compared to GDP can be reduced to the desired 50 percent level. As the result of ten scenarios a more or less pessimistic, but in the case of one scenario, an optimistic, picture emerged concerning the future state of gross public debt.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: C53, H68

• Interdependence between government redistribution and economic growth in the long run

  132-146

  Levente Nadasi

  Views:

  174

  The present paper aims to study changes in the degree of government redistribution with an institutional, historical, statistical and model-like approach. I investigate the impact of changes in redistribution on long-term economic growth in 30 European countries. It is generally stated that government spending/GDP ratio has been continuously increasing (in terms of trend) in Europe since the 1870s. I examine how the size of the states affects economic growth, and what other factors influence the long-run relationship between these two variables. My hypothesis is that in developed countries with high government
  redistribution it has been an impediment to economic growth in the long run. Finally, I illustrate this hypothesis with a statistical analysis of 30 European countries.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Classification: E66, H62, C10