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• Nyugdíjreform-dilemmák – jövedelemelosztási arányok és makropénzügyi egyensúly

  5-32

  Laszlo Antal

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  145

  The paper aims to outline the main relations and critical points of the pension system which make the reform of the whole system inevitable in near future. The most important cause stems from demographic change: in the developed countries average life expectancy is rising rapidly while the number of births is diminishing. This results in rising retirement outgoings and decreasing revenues from superannuation taxes. In addition to this medical expenses are increasing due to the development of treatment methods. In contrast, in Hungary the average life expectancy will only increase after 20-30 years. The main problems of the distributive systems are rooted in the particular characteristics of the political change following the collapse of communism. The level of employment decreased dramatically and there are many tax arbitrage opportunities. In addition nowadays 90% of employers tend to retire on a pension before retirement age. These factors make the main distributive system unsustainable. Additionally the elderly dependence rate will double in the next few decades. Parties debating a socially and financially sustainable main distributive system agree on the inevitability of an increasing role for self-provision and a cut in the growth in expenditure. The pension system will not be able to keep pace with growing wages, to guarantee insurance principals and a minimal income in old-age, and to meet the requirements of long-term financing at the same time, especially not in the period of demographic changes.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL): I38, J11, J26