Keresés

Keresési eredmények

• Is the clamour for infrastructure investment justifiable for economic development? An investigation into an emerging economy. A case from South Africa.

  3-27

  Marais Stacey Lee

  Megtekintések száma:

  2

  A critical challenge in South Africa today is the absence of consistent economic growth and job creation, both of which are necessary to reduce poverty and increase the standard of living of its citizens. The South African government continues to commit and spend billions of rands annually on infrastructure in an attempt to address social ills. We analyse this type of investment using long- and short-term statistical methods to determine its effects on income per capita over the period 1996-2021. This was examined through the application of classic and contemporary econometric modelling and analysis, which started with a panel unit root testing, then moved onto cointegration test, and regression testing such as FMOLS, DOLS, and VAR models. The analysis demonstrated a long-term link between infrastructure investment and income per capita. Specifically, transport and ICT investments have a significant positive effect on earnings. On the contrary, labour has a long-term negative impact. Capital investment projects should not be developed, constructed, or implemented haphazardly. But must be coordinated with education and vocational development programs to improve labour efficiency to counter its negative impact on GDP per capita.

• A non-stationary panel data approach for examining convergence in South Africa

  42-74

  Marais Stacey-Lee

  Megtekintések száma:

  231

   Economic convergence has received much attention since the 1980s when researchers tried to ascertain whether low-income countries would stay that way in the long run, or they would gain ‘developmental traction’ and become the affluent nations of the future. This article gives fresh insight on this topic from an African perspective by comparing 39 countries—South Africa, 32 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members and 6 Latin American countries. The author investigated their average steady-state equilibria and tested convergence trends from 1980 to 2019. The Solow–Swan model was tested. Furthermore, this study applies panel econometric modelling to determine the relationship between the variables analysed in the convergence analysis. This commenced with the Levin–Lin–Chu and Im–Pesaran–Shin panel unit root tests. Then, the Kao test and the vector error correction model were used to evaluate the cointegration and relationships between variables. The findings revealed that South Africa’s economic performance is significantly lower than the OECD average gross domestic product per capita with an annual growth rate of 0.54%, which falls below the ‘iron law of convergence’ hypothesis.

  JEL classifications: C01, C32, C33, E13, F62, F63