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Examination of the sub-regions in the North Great Plain Region
158-163Views:119Before Hungary joined the European Union – in order to gain access to the sources of Structural Funds and to create the expected regional information service – a build up of five-level territorial system was indispensable. Both in the EU and in Hungary, there are significant differences among regions. The aim of regional policy is to reduce differences regarding development and living standards, in order to guarantee a reasonable living standard and income for every region’s inhabitants in the EU.
In Hungary, during the last decade, the effects of regional difference grew. While the advantage of the leading capital and its agglomeration and the eastern and western parts of Transdanubia was growing, meanwhile the most undeveloped areas' rates of development remained under the mean. The underdeveloped areas are in the northeastern part and in Southern Transdanubia. The developmental differences lead to such great social asymmetries, that these simply beg for remedying.
In this study, I would like to present the sub-regions of the North Great Plain Region and uncover the possible reasons of the developmental differences. -
Recent data about the fish consumption of great Cormorant in the area of Hortobágy Fish Farm Co
75-80Views:232The cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) is a bird species that nests sporadically but in colonies, besides larger fishponds and rivers in Hungary. The number of its individuals has been increasing during the last two decades. The species eats solely fish, therefore it can cause serious depredation of the fish stocks in fishponds of intensive system and after the freezing of the ponds, in larger rivers, which are not yet frozen. The aim of our research was to reveal the damages the birds can cause on the studied areas and the extent of the losses the Hortobágy Fish Farm Co. has to realize.
Our studies were carried out between April 2012 and November 2014. During cleaning, the investigation of the craw contents of the birds and their biometric studies were conducted. The results revealed the diverse food base of the species. In the samples, we have determined 379 fish individuals; in 368 cases, the exact fish species were determined, too. Significant differences were found between the consumed fish species rations of the units (P=0.05% beside). We have also found significant difference in the fish consumptions of adult males and females.
Under the ever harder fish production conditions, the presence and thus the permanent predation of the birds affect the fishermen. In favour of maintaining ecological balance as well as to hold the income of the fish farmers, elaboration of adequate protective and preventive methods will be needed in near future.
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Use of Forecasting Methods in Price Analyses
240-247Views:49The cost of products changes not only seasonally in relation to time, but also follows a hectic motion. It is necessary for the farmers to calculate in advance the size of the future income, which is one of the basic conditions of the economical production. Many authors have examined the change of the prices but since the tendency of the change of the prices can be only rarely observed purely by itself, therefore it is difficult to separate it. During my research I examined how the monthly prices of corn and the monthly buying prices of pigs for slaughter have changed since 1991 and how much their future value will be. I examined how much is the α factor wich gives the minimal residual variation in case of the Brownian dual exponential smoothing and the corrected dual exponential smoothing and how will the future (2002) prices, which were in this way calculated, change compared to their real market prices.
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Complex problem analysis of the Hungarian milk product chain
43-47Views:103Hungarian dairy sector went through significant changes in past two decades. The most significant changes were caused by our accession to the European Union. In Hungary milk production remarkably declined after EU accession. The size of our dairy herd has been practically reducing since the political transformation, but increasing yields per cow could compensate it in some way and for some time. However, in recent years, increasing yield per cow came to a stop and in parallel, the number of cows declined further and faster. Low prices, high production costs and tightening quality requirements ousted several producers from the market in past years. Feeding cost represents the highest rate in cost structure of production, but animal health expenditures and various losses are also significant. There are undeniably competitive disadvantages in the level of organisation and labour productivity; however competitiveness already depends on cost effectiveness in the medium run. In Hungary concentration of the dairies is relatively strong in spite of the relative high number of corporations. The dairies compete with each other and with the export market for the raw material and the better exploitation of their capacities. Applied technology of the Hungarian dairies lags behind the Western-European competitors’; in addition they have handicaps in efficiency and product innovation. Presence of chain of stores being dominant in sale of milk products does also not favour in all respects to the position of the dairies. The aforementioned retail chains are namely consumer-centric, engage in price follower conduct and weaken the position of the dairies with their private label products. As a result of increasing import of milk and milk products Hungary became a net importer in recent years. Today, disposable income still essentially determines the consumption habits of price-sensitive consumers. Loyalty for Hungarian products is not typical, consumers are open for import products being preferred by retail chains. In addition Hungarian milk and milk product consumption is about half of the Union average and it is far behind the level being necessary for healthy eating. In Hungary lack of competitiveness and vertical integration relationships and backwardness are revealing among the dairy farmers and the dairies, while chain of stores are in unprecedented “monopolistic situation”; the whole sector can be characterised by defencelessness.
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Contradiction in the agrofinancial regulation of agricultural producers
97-107Views:103Hungary is a country of favourable conditions with agropotential, for this reason the regulations regarding agriculture is constantly the bone of legislative contention. The
purpose of this study is to present the actual agropotential contradictions concerning the agricultural producers, specifically focusing on certain problems without any detailed representation of the valid rules of law. The agrofinancial anomalies referring to agricultural producers can be found mostly in the system of the personal income tax (allowance, tax immunity), the value added tax (special agricultural legal position) as well as the social insurance.
The severity of the problem is supported by the agricultural producers’ behavioral types of paying taxes, globalisation process of these days and our place in the European Union. The resolution of the contradictions in agriculture does not lie by any means in the proper way of making the rules of the law of taxation, but in a comprehensive economic policy, which is to be waited for. -
Distribution of family farms according to estate size and land usage in Hajdú-Bihar County
130-136Views:90In harmony with European tendencies, the role of agriculture and its share in GDP output, as well as in employment, is continuously decreasing in Hungary and Hajdú-Bihar County. At the same time, according to the specialized literature, the role of agriculture is still extremely important in the income of the rural population and in easing the present social tensions, and this will not change in the future. The economic and social processes of the last one and a half decades caused radical changes in agriculture. The above-mentioned processes resulted in new property and organizational structure in the field of leasehold and land structure. The rational land concentration which came to pass in the last few years can be mentioned as a favourable tendency that improves the efficiency of agricultural activities, as well as the more effective land usage accompanied by this process. In addition, it supports the integration with principles formulated in the Common Agricultural Policy. In this study, I survey the effects of established processes and the change of land usage in the case of individual family enterprises in Hajdú-Bihar County. The choice of the examination area was motivated by the higher proportion of agricultural area in comparison with the national average and the fact that this sector has great importance today, too.
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The economicalness of apple production in view of post harvest technology
125-131Views:205This study analyses how the level of postharvest technology’s development influences the economic efficiency of apple production with the help of a deterministic simulation model based on primary data gathering in producer undertakings. To accomplish our objectives and to support our hypotheses three processing plant types are included in the model: firstly apple production with no postharvest and prompt sale after the harvest, secondly parallel production and storage combined with an extended selling period and thirdly production and entire postharvest infrastructure (storage, sorting-ranking, packing) with the highest level of goods production and continuous sales. Based on our results it can be stated that the parallel production (plantation) and cold storage, so the second case is proved to be totally inefficient, considering that the establishment of a cold storage carries enormously high costs with resulting a relative low plus profit compared to the first type of processing plant. The reason for this is that this type is selling bulk goods without sorting-grading or packaging; storage itself – as a means of continuously servicing the market - is not covered properly by the consumers. Absolute efficiency ranking cannot be established regarding the other two processing plants: plantation without post-harvest infrastructure resulting lower NPV, but a higher IRR, DPP and PI as developing a plantation and a whole post-harvest infrastructure. Former processing plant type is favourable considering efficiency ratios describing capital adequacy, while the latter is in terms of income generating capacity.
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Spatial environment analisys of the bioenergy production and utilization
235-240Views:108The backwardness of the rural areas compared to the cities poses a problem all over Europe. Rural development and the reduction of differences between the development levels of the regions have expressed roles among the programs of the European Union. Member States are even entitled to subsidisation, they just need to manage subsidies economically. In Hungary, a relatively small amount of the population lives in the capital, more than 80% of Hungarians live in rural cities or villages. The opposition between the countryside and the cities is rather intensified and the symbiotic correlation would need to be restored. Many people migrate from the countryside, especially youngsters, as they have no opportunities to find any job. This phenomenon poses big risks because getting a job is usually difficult everywhere and because fitting into a new environment always involves a lot of difficulties. Also from the aspect of the national economy, migration from the rural areas to the cities is a problem. The state budget will face significant excess costs if someone moves from a village to the city. It could cause unpredictable consequences if people leave the villages, as the maintenance and development of the village living space will face a hopeless situation.
Non-renewable energies are restricted and they will not be accessible after reaching a certain limit. People’s everyday activities and the functioning of the economy presupposes the availabilty of the necessary amount of energy. In the future, solution that provide the longterm stability of energy for the world will become increasingly necessary. There is a huge potential in bioenergy, more specifically in biomass. The building of biomass plants and putting them into operation creates jobs in the rural spatial environments. A locally available resource that can help in creating the energy safety of the country and the reduction of the dependence on import. The production of energy crops or the crops whose purpose of use is energy could help in strengthening the multifunctional character of agriculture and it can represent a source of income for those living off of agriculture under the current uncertain conditions. -
The effect of silver crucian carp (Carassius auratus gibelio Bloch) on the yields and the production value of common carp (Cyprius carpio) fingerlings
5-10Views:111During the last few years, the spread of the silver crucian carp has caused significant problems in pond fish culture. One of the main challenges of successful fish production in fishponds, is to rid ponds of the silver crucian carp. The nature of the damage caused by silver crucian carp is a complex question. To get into the ponds, the crucian carps occupy the territory before the common carp, and competes for food with common carp. The silver crucian carp has a less favorable food coefficient than the common carp, and it’s value is also lower. Therefore, the income of the fish farm decreases. In the course of the experiment, carp fry were stocked in 5 nursing ponds at the same stocking rate, with different (0,- 50-, 100-, 150-, 200%) stocking rates of silver crucian carp fry, respectively. At the end of the experiment, the yield/hectar and the production values were calculated. The experiment proved that the presence of the silver crucian carp in the fishponds causes lower yields and production values.
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The role of animal breeding with special regard to native pigs of food supply and rural development in Laos
149-154Views:267The present paper explored the influence of breeding native pigs on livelihood conditions and the contribution of native pigs to the rural development and rural poverty reduction in the rural areas of Lao PDR. Pig production plays an important role in meat supply for both urban and rural areas of Laos. It is clear that most of the pig products in the country come from smallholder pig farms, and more than 90 percent of those products are the native pigs mostly raised by farmers in remote areas. In general, livestock production distributed between 15–18 percent to GDP, while most of animal production still remains as the traditional methods. Rural development is always the first priority of the Laos government since its independence in 1975, however, the poverty rate in rural areas remained high at 23% in 2018. It might block the development goal of the government which will lead the country out of the least development status by 2020. The food security and malnutrition in the rural or mountainous areas are considered as the majority issue that both government and several international organizations have been thriving hard to overcome, which researchers showed that more than 45% of children under 5 years of age were stunted, and 28% of them were underweight. Inspired of more than 50 % of the households in the rural areas of Laos reported they consumed chicken and pork at least one day a week. While native pigs play an important role on meat supply, it also constituted around 9–14 % of annual income of the households in rural areas. Therefore, the increase the production of pigs and poultry is one option to promote the meat supply to households in the rural areas of Laos. This paper will be a pathway to guide and identify for the final decision to what experiment will be implemented on Lao native pig in Laos (2021–2023) to complete the comparative study on reproductive physiology and reproductive management methods of Hungarian and Lao Indigenous pig breed. Which found it still needs further afford to research and improve more about native pig performance for all areas of productive and quality management.
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The Legal Rules Pertaining to Land Protection in Hungary
324-331Views:94Buildings in industry, mining, transportation and for personal and commercial activities cover increasingly more valuable agricultural land. The increase of sub-urbanization and vehicular traffic and the spread of malls and other kinds of investments are causing serious harm for not only to human society, but to a whole national economy as well.
The law on agricultural land (1994:LV) contains legal rules for the preservation, use and classification of agricultural land. These rules define the temporary or permanent use of land for agricultural and non-agricultural purposes; the scale of the land-protection fee and the rules of the process on cases in which land is used for non-agricultural purposes without the consent of the land registry. In the field of land classification, the law prescribes the regulations which are to be followed in order to define the net income of agricultural land in Golden Crowns.
Hungarian land protection rules are unique in the European Union, because only few member-states have similar laws to ours. Community law does not regulate the member states, except in the case of land classification, because this is the basis of the tax paid on the agricultural lands, but even here, there are differences among the states. -
Agronomical and economic evaluation of various cultivation systems on meadow soil
103-106Views:122The requirements and objectives of cultivation are in constant change. There are different cultivation aims if the objective is soil protection, the prevention of its moisture content or on areas with different precipitation supply or production site endowments. Based on the experimental database of the Institute for Land Utilisation, Regional Development and Technology of the University of Debrecen, Centre for Agricultural and Applied Economic Sciences and the KITE Plc., the various cultivation systems in Hajdú-Bihar country were examined with maize as indicator plant. The sample area can be found in the outskirts of Biharnagybajom on meadow soil. On the examined plot, spring strip basic cultivation, loosening and autumn ploughing were applied on 15-15-15 ha, respectively. At the time of taking undisturbed soil samples, soil conductivity measurements were also performed with a Penetronik penetrometer. Undisturbed soil samples were taken from each treatment before sowing (on 5th April 2012). The yield obtained in the strip cultivation treatment increased that of the ploughing and the loosening technology. The economic indexes are the most favourable in the strip cultivation.
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The correlation of foreign language proficiency, employment and regional competitiveness in the North Great Plain Region of Hungary
74-82Views:69Employment is one of the basic factors when evaluating a region’s competitiveness. Boosting employment figures will also increase individual income. However, the creation of jobs alone will not solve the problems of unemployment, as labour force with skills matched to labour market demands should also be available. Continuous development of the labour force, adjusted to recent needs in the labour market, can contribute to a region’s competitiveness. Mismatches between education and labour market requirements would be too expensive, especially for backward regions like the North Great Plain Region of Hungary. Foreign language education should also be adapted to the changing economy when selecting target languages and language skills. A workforce equipped with contemporary and needed second language skills can be an element in making a region attractive for investors. Although current trends show signs of improvement, Hungary and especially the North Great Plain Region still does not have much to offer in this respect. The paper examines the reasons for the low level of second language acquisition among Hungarians and the population of the North Great Plain Region and explores the ways foreign language knowledge could promote economic development.
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The situation and role of higher education in the North Hungary region
91-96Views:145Northern Hungary is one of the most disadvantageous regions of Hungary and the European Union; "keeping force" is extremely week. The regional spatial inequalities – despite the national and EU convergence program – have been increasing year by year. The social and economic situation of the region shows negative trends. Negative features of the migration processes are manifested in the candidates' choice for tertiary education has increased in the region in the past three years parallel with the proportion of those who are not on site, but primarily in the Central Hungarian region to continue their studies. An intensification of the negative trends is experienced in the economic processes both in jobs and the structure and performance of the local economy in respect of per capita income.
The transition from the nineties has decisively influenced the social and economic processes and the status of tertiary education institutions and their constantly changing role in the region. The role of education has become a key point of their activities as financing of the sector encouraged the institutions to increase the number of students and training offer, while R&D as form of cooperation in the economic sphere overshaded. Nowadays and over the past decade the increasing demand to transform their educational profile has increased in accordance with the social and economic situation of the region, adjusted to the catch-up and development opportunities of the region.
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Agronomical and Economic Evaluation of Different Soil Cultivation Systems
17-22Views:88In the interest of profitable plant production and environmental protection we have to make an effort to protect and improve the productivity of our soils while moderating production limiting factors. Due to different soil cultivation methods, the quantity of yield and required expenses also differ.
We examined the production costs in four different production technology systems. Overall, it can be said that farming standards are good, since cost prices were low (2001: 14-15 HUF/kg, 2002: 15-21 HUF/kg, 2003: 39-49 HUF/kg) in the case of all main products per 1 kg. Cost prices were lowest in the case of direct sowing, probably due to low machinery costs.
All economic indicators have to be compared when choosing the most suitable production technology in a specific farming environment. -
Hungary’s employment policy from the point of view joining the European Union
189-197Views:75What is a place of work? Is it a commitment to work, or continuous pressure under work, or hunting for income? This article is a brief review about the main milestones of the employment history of the European Union and Hungary. In 1989, the Social Charta about the social principles of employee was issued. In 1997 the employment policy became the part of the acquis communautaire. Finally, in 1998, the European
Employment Strategy was developed, which contains the community employment guidelines. In the year of millennium, the new long term concept of the EU, the Lisbon Strategy was approved. In this document the EU was targeted as the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the World till 2010. The Tens joint to the EU in 2004, and a bit later it became clear, that the EU is light-armed against some of the world economy challenges. As a consequence, many objectives of the Strategy could not be reached. Recently member states of the EU have to develop the national action plan for employment year by year. The hungarian plans were developed as well, but the wrong labour market’s parameters haven’t been changed since 2004. -
Agronomical and Economic Evaluation of Different Soil Cultivation Systems
255-258Views:84In the interest of profitable plant production and environmental protection we have to make an effort to protect and improve the productivity of our soils while moderating production limiting factors. Due to different soil cultivation methods, the quantity of yield and required expenses also differ.
We examined the production costs in four different production technology systems. Overall, it can be said that farming standards are good, since cost prices were low (2001: 14-15 HUF/kg, 2002: 15-21 HUF/kg, 2003: 39-49 HUF/kg) in the case of all main products per 1 kg. Cost prices were lowest in the case of direct sowing, probably due to low machinery costs.
All economic indicators have to be compared when choosing the most suitable production technology in a specific farming environment. -
Settlement network, demographic circumstances, healthcare, social service and educations in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county
105-113Views:203Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county shares its borders with three countries: Romania, Ukraine and Slovakia. The county is part of the North Great Plain Region, it is the third largest county of Hungary in terms of its population. The peripheric geographical location of the county gained importance by the EU accession, as the county represents a significant part of the eastern border of the EU.
Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county is one of the counties of the Great Plain with significant population in the outlying areas, out of the six counties of the Great Plain the population of outlying areas is the lowest in the county, its ratio has been significantly reducing in the past decades. In the six counties in 1990 the population of the outlying areas represented 22.3% of the total population, whereas in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county the ratio was 13.6%. The ratio has dropped to 6.2% and 4.1% respectively.
The major aim of economic development is the improvement of the living conditions of the population, first and foremost by increasing family incomes. There are two main determining factors of family income level: employment ratio and the sectoral structure of employment.
Between 1992–2010 the number of employees in the financial sector decreased from 89 000 to 75 000, whereas the number of employees in the non-financial sector grew dynamically from 40 000 to 65 000. Structural change was significant. In the non-financial sector the proportion of the two main employment fields (education and healthcare) swapped. The number of employees in the education sector decreased from 16 000 to 14 000, while the number of employees in the health and social care sector grew from 11 000 to 22 000.
On the basis of statistics the number of kindergarten and primary school children reduced in the given period, while the number of secondary school aged children increased. In 1999 the number of secondary school children was 1/5th compared to the number of primary school children, whereas in 2010 their number almost reached 1/2. The student number in higher education doubled, which is a favorable phenomenon, though its structural changes raise some problems. The lack of technical trainings hinders exigent industrial development.
Since 1990 the education level of the population has significantly improved, the number and proportion of secondary school students and university graduates have risen much more dynamically than in other regions of the country. In the county the proportion of secondary school students increased 63% more than the national average, while in the case of university graduates the county passed the average national growth by more than 54%. Due to the effect of structural changes the proportion of university graduates in the corresponding age group improved, its backwardness compared to the national average has ameliorated from 34% to 29%, in the group of secondary school graduates the disadvantage has moderated from 26% to 21%. The computer and internet supply, as well as the number of teachers and students enrolled in secondary education institutions have developed dynamically in the county. Their growth has much excelled the national average.
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Farms in the system of European supportpolicy
79-83Views:89Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been having a great past, it is over numerous direction and structure changes in the last half century. After the Treaty of Rome, the harmonization of he agricultural structure and the production of Member States has been launched, during which the economic changes in the world and in Europe were continuously being kept track of. By using common experience, they strived to develop an agricultural sector that supplies the Member States of the Community with food, while the competitiveness and living circumstances of family farms are being improved. The general directions outlined in Stresa in 1958 were significantly redrawn owing to the transformed market conditions and EU accessions. The subsidization of family farms and the improvement of their profitability are having a stressed importance nowadays, too. Our country, as the fully qualified member of the European Union tries to meet its obligations undertaken in the accession treaty and therefore to develop an agricultural sector carrying out diversified agricultural production with a healthy age structure. The aim of the study is to specifically overview the issue of common agricultural policy by stressing the main development points and to introduce the Hungarian conditions of family farms. Besides, there will be an evaluation of the research works examining the income conditions of family farms in the North Great Plain region.
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Comparison of major population parameters of Brown hare (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1758) in two hunting fields of the Great Hungarian Plain
69-74Views:184Hungarian stock of game is not only part of our national treasure but also one of our domestic products and economic income. Not indifferent therefore the number and the state of health of our wildlife. Population decline of the Brown hare (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1758) (one of our most important small game in Hungary) takes a long time. Demographic parameters of Brown hare was examined, particularly the factors affecting the decline of the species in Hungary. We took samples from typical habitats where the Brown hare could be found in relatively high density in our country. The article reports data of reproductive characteristics, diseases, parasites of Brown hare and other factors such as climatic and anthropogenic which could influence of the population dynamics. We mention sample collection and processing methods eg: population size estimates, examination of reproductive organs, the sex ratio and the age structure as well as the individual condition based on data of domestic and foreign authors and our partial results.
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Fresh fruit purchase analysis in the town’s circle in the Nothern Great Plain Region
101-106Views:140In my research I aimed to examine the previous theories about consumer habits and behaviors as well as the preference of different fruit species in the Northern Great Plain Region. Furthermore, I also wanted to know if there are any correlations between the product atributes that influence fruit consumption and different ages, genders and income categories.
The importance of my research field is reflected in the fact that issues in connection with foodstuffs, healty diet and food safety have been highly emphasized recently.
I belive in order to live longer we need to pursue healthy diet that is rich in fruits and vegetables. It seems, however, not every can follow this lifestyle in their every day diet since most people prefer junk food that contains harmful ingridients.
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Economic issues of crop based ethanol production for energetic uses
90-94Views:102The United States Congress passed the “Clean Air Act” in 1990, which targeted the creation and use of so-called “green fuel”. This Act came into full force on January 7, 1995. Its essence is that an oxygen rich component is added to fuel by which it burns more cleanly and harmful emissions of vehicles are reduced by 25%. This oxygen rich component is basically ethanol and its ether ETBE, made of domestically produced grains.
America’s traditional grain exporter status could be converted into a stabile income resource during production, many more valuable by-products – should this program succeed – are also produced, giving the opportunity for further utilisation either in the foods or form feeds industries, or as export products.
Ethanol or ETBE production is also important to replace fuel imports from any specific country, the additive which is necessary for producing the fuel is the imported product MTBE.
This programme therefore simultaneously assisted in environmental protection, agricultural and foreign trading issues as well as some market regulation issues. At the same time, based on grain production, it has an effect on the social strata by creating new jobs, especially in those areas which can be considered in recession due to the lack of any large-scale industrial cities.
In the future, the European Union should carry out this project and it will affect Hungary, as well. -
Analysis of Economic Efficiency of Energy Wood Plantations
53-60Views:92After the EU-accession we should have a definite idea about what kind of production structure and land use should Hungary obtain to meet the conditions undertaken in the different governmental decisions. In the course of Hungarian land use, significant changes have taken place in the last eighty years. Further changes are influenced by the fact that according to various decisions, legislative provisions and ideas in a short time the energy orchards’ domiciliation could start in large. For this, financial support can be required from EU-sources. As for the woody energy plants, subsidies can be required for the domiciliation and as for herbaceous plants grants can be required for growing. As far as the latter is concerned, the subsidy will be around 26-27 thousand Ft/hectares according to the plans. However, the cultivation method does not have to be changed to
switch from plow-land to energy plants. The question is if the produced commodity will be received by power plants and if it ensures appropriate income for the farmer. In my research I wanted to find from the given woody energy plants which are those that are the most profitable. -
The future of apple growing in the Northern Great Plain region
35-38Views:143We revealed and assessed those macroeconomic data which enabled us to identify the outstanding role of agriculture and within it that of fruit production. Based on this, it can be said that soil is the most important natural resource of Hungary. The appropriate combination of the additional resources required for production, labour and assets can provide a comparative advantage for the Northern Great Plain Region.
The Northern Great Plain Region is one of the most underdeveloped regions in Hungary, so its development is a political objective. When analysing the economic sectors in the region, the important role of agriculture is obvious and it is also clear that the industry and the tertiary sector can only have an alternative income generating role in the future also. Therefore, it is important that the regional development funds of Hungary and the European Union are directly or indirectly aimed at improving agricultural development and competitiveness. -
How can we determine the expected prices for lambs? – Analysis of the Hungarian and Italian lamb prices
59-67Views:79The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb went to Italy, which increased its defenselessness. In addition to the sole Italian market showing a permanent demand for Hungarian lambs, it would worth to exploit possibilities in other European markets considering the seasonal differences in Italian prices. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for ”light” and the French, German and English markets for ”heavy” lambs. Both the Italian and Hungarian prices have three major periods: Easter, Ferragusto and Christmas. Due to the changes in the prices, the producers often suffer great losses, therefore, the temporal adaptation of production, market research, technological and development activities need to be improved. It is important that the living of Hungarian sheep breeders should not be dependent solely upon the Italian market, distribution of products should be ensured in other markets too, so that the safety of sales be increased and higher prices and higher income could be achieved. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different in the different countries. Study of the literature and the results obtained in my study on lamb sales called for an analysis and study of the possibilities of price forecasting. In my study, I performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary and Italy for the period between 1996 and 2006 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting methods, seasonal decomposition and SARIMA models are the most precise, producers can achieve a better market position by using these in the practice.