Current infection risk prediction models utilize environmental parameters and field records, but do not take into account the estimated inoculum potential within the orchard. The object of this study was to survey the accuracy of three simple prediction methods under Hungarian climatic conditions, which could easily be used by the farmers. We a...lso tested whether the accuracy of infection risk predictions can be improved by taking into consideration the incidence and/or rate of flower colonization by Erwinia amylovora.
After preliminary investigations in 1999-2001, data concerning the weather-related infection risk were recorded in 5 apple and 1 pear orchards in 2002, and in 12 apple and I pear orchards in 2003. The weather data were processed by the easy-to-use risk assessment models of the mean temperature prediction line (MTL), Smith's Cougarblight 98C and Billing's integrated system (BIS), and by the MaryblytTM 4.3 computer-assisted model for reference. The population size of E. amylovora in the flower samples was estimated within an order of magnitude by PCR.
For all years and orchards tested, Maryblyt indicated 35 days on which there was an acute infection risk. The same days were indicated by all 3 methods in 23 cases (66%), 8 days were indicated by 2 methods (23%) and 4 days were indicated by 1 method only. A similarly good correlation was found for prediction of the date of the first massive infection risk: in 2003, for instance, there was a perfectly consistent prediction by all 4 models in 9 of the 13 participating orchards. A coincidental forecast was provided by 3 of the 4 models in the other 4 orchards.
The results indicate that any of the risk assessment models could provide an increased accuracy of the actual infection risk prediction if combined with an estimation of the incidence of Erwinia amylovora colonization in the open flowers. We found no convincing differences in the size of the epiphytic population in flowers of cultivars possessing high or low susceptibility to Erwinia amylovora.
We conclude that the easy-to-use methods tested could be used by the fanners to recognize weather-related risks, especially when coupled with an estimation of the proportion of the pathogen-infested flowers. This local prediction would provide rapid information (faster than the regional forecast systems) specifically for a given orchard.
The raspberry cane midge (Resseliella rheohaldi BARNES) is a major pest of raspberry in Europe. The accurate prediction of adult midge emergence is an important part of integrated raspberry protection. Calculation of the accumulated effective temperature may be used in prediction. The values of the critical accumulated effective temper...ature needed for the first flight of the midge differ in the European regions. In our experiments we investigated the first generation of the midge in Hungary. Our results show that the critical accumulated effective temperature for the first flight was the lowest compared with results received in other European countries. The emergence of males of the first generation was found at 145-194 day °C, and females started laying eggs a few days later.
Effective chemical protection against the raspberry cane midge (Resseliella theobaldi) should be based on the monitoring of the emergence of the pest. Before the application of sex pheromone traps, the results of several international studies carried out to determine the accumulated temperature needed by the larvae to become adults sho...wed differences in the calculated data. The aim of this paper was to give information on the time of cane midge emergence by using sex pheromone traps and different methods of accumulated temperature calculations. On the basis of three years' results, the use of accumulated soil temperatures turned out to be reliable for the prediction of cane midge flight, and the relative standard deviation was the smallest in the case of 0 °C compared with other values applied as supposed biological zero points. According to our studies, 665 day °C are required for the development of one generation of the raspberry cane midge during the vegetation period. The emergence of the first generation was found at 451 day °C.
One of the most important pests of the stone fruit orchards is the oriental fruit moth (Grapholitha 1110/esta B.). Chemical control targeted against the young larvae is the most effective way of protection. so the ti ming of treatments has to be based on the observation of emergence. Emergence may be monitored with sex pheromone traps.... It is already known from former publications, that the traps for oriental fruit moth are also effective in the case of the plum moth (Grapholitha f1111ebra11a Tr.), which external morphology is very similar to the oriental fruit moth. As the emergence of the oriental fruit moth in peach and apricot orchards has not been observed in detaib in Hungary, we started a s1Udy in this field. Our aim was to measure the selectivity of the sex pheromone traps. On the basis of examining more than 5000 males caught and the investigation of male genital ia. it could be established that the pheromone traps. Csalomon and Deltastop, for oriental fruit moth, caught the plum moth in the same ratio. The ratio of the oriental fruit moth and the plum moth trapped in the peach orchards was I: I . while in the apricot orchards the number of the caught plum moth males was seven times as many as that of the oriental fruit moths. Consequently, it can be established that data based on oriental fruit moth trap catches can not be used without additional investigations of genitalia for the prediction of larval hatch. The selectivity of the plum moth trap. used as a control. was acceptable in both orchards.
County Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry grown in Hungary. Successful production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during the blooming period, being most decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict y...ields expected, the characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phonological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. Data of 7 indicators have been traced: number of frosty days, the absolute minimum temperatures, means of minimum temperatures, number of days when daily means were above 10°C, means of maximum temperatures, number of days without precipitation, and number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades. The indicators being associated with certain risky events may serve for the prediction of the future recommendations to prevent damages.
Numerous apple varieties have been tested parallel with traditional Jonathan varieties during four years, 1990-1994 on three different geographical areas of Hungary. The picking time took place at three different times in a year: ten days before the probably optimal picking time, at close-to-optimal picking time, and ten days after the optimal...picking time. The effect of storage on quality of fruits have been tested in February, March, and April under circumstances of a semi-industrial storage experiment.
The results of experience can contribute to answer numerous current, from point of view of practice important topics:
- The stochastic relations between various fruit quality parameters at different varieties
- The change of fruit — quality during storage
- The effect of different picking date on storage losses
- The possibilities of storage — loss predicting by the utilization of multiple regression analysis.
The most important results of experiences are as follows :
- The starch — degradation test and Streiff — index are well applicable for practical purposes to determine the optimal harvest-date.
- On base of analysis of various losses and physiological diseases the high importance of mass loss is obvious. In the variety Jonnee the earlier picking date considerably increased the mass loss. The effect of variety on mass loss is rather limited. In the Jonathan varieties the Jonathan spot was a rather important physiological disease. The late picking time increased the frequency of Jonathan - spot. At optimal date of harvest at Jonnee the frequency of Jonathan -spot was lower, than at Jonathan M 41. In the Jonathan M41 and Jonnee the importance of scald was rather limited, but in the Wellspur Delicious and Smoothee this disease occurred relatively frequently. In the Smoothee the earlier picking time considerably increased the probability of scald.
- The multiple regression analysis yielded reliable results, fit for prediction of storage losses and diseases on the base of chemical and physical properties, determined at the time of picking.