There are profound, long-term changes in world apple production and trade. The former hegemony of Europe in apple production doest not exists any more, among the most important apple exporters the emerging economies have a growing importance. The globalising apple market means new challenges of traditional producers. This is especially true for... Hungary, which has been the most important apple exporter in terms of quantity thirty years ago, but now its production hardly covers the domestic demand. A necessary precondition of the modernisation is the re-construction of plantations and the cold-storage system. Analysing the economic effi ciency of apple production and cold storage, it is obvious, that a necessary precondition for the modern, competitive apple production is the availability of cold-storage facilities. Neither the apple-production, nor the cold-storage can not evaluated separately from each other. Under current Hungarian conditions there is a need for active state support for the establishment of cold-storage facilities.
Based on standard econometric methods the article analyses the time series of fresh apple producer prices in domestic markets of Germany and Hungary. In Germany, as a consequence of high storage capacities the quantity offered in different parts of the season is relatively stable, that’s why only a rather limited price increasing can be detec...ted. In Hungary, as a consequence of the limited storage capacity this fluctuation is much more important. The modern methods of time series analysis (ARIMA models, stepwise regression) can be efficiently applied for forecasting of price movements.
Investments in the vine growing-wine making sector can be characterised by a high level of' risk, and an important role of time, because there is a considerable time gap between the decision on investment and its consequences, whereas the ecological and economical factors should be considered as stochastic variables. Based on a real—life, typ...ical vine—plantation project, the article analyses the profitability of vine growing-wine making sector as a function of different ecological and economical conditions depending on the added value content of products. Results of the investigations highlight: (1) the importance of subsidy for establishment of vine plantations: (2) the considerable influence of yields on rate of return of investment; (3) the role of increasing of added value content of products. Importance of the utilisation of alternative channels of distribution and the formation of producers' cooperatives are underlined, being based on calculation of return of investment.
Numerous apple varieties have been tested parallel with traditional Jonathan varieties during four years, 1990-1994 on three different geographical areas of Hungary. The picking time took place at three different times in a year: ten days before the probably optimal picking time, at close-to-optimal picking time, and ten days after the optimal...picking time. The effect of storage on quality of fruits have been tested in February, March, and April under circumstances of a semi-industrial storage experiment.
The results of experience can contribute to answer numerous current, from point of view of practice important topics:
- The stochastic relations between various fruit quality parameters at different varieties
- The change of fruit — quality during storage
- The effect of different picking date on storage losses
- The possibilities of storage — loss predicting by the utilization of multiple regression analysis.
The most important results of experiences are as follows :
- The starch — degradation test and Streiff — index are well applicable for practical purposes to determine the optimal harvest-date.
- On base of analysis of various losses and physiological diseases the high importance of mass loss is obvious. In the variety Jonnee the earlier picking date considerably increased the mass loss. The effect of variety on mass loss is rather limited. In the Jonathan varieties the Jonathan spot was a rather important physiological disease. The late picking time increased the frequency of Jonathan - spot. At optimal date of harvest at Jonnee the frequency of Jonathan -spot was lower, than at Jonathan M 41. In the Jonathan M41 and Jonnee the importance of scald was rather limited, but in the Wellspur Delicious and Smoothee this disease occurred relatively frequently. In the Smoothee the earlier picking time considerably increased the probability of scald.
- The multiple regression analysis yielded reliable results, fit for prediction of storage losses and diseases on the base of chemical and physical properties, determined at the time of picking.