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• A gazdasági növekedés gyorsításának esélyei Magyarországon 2030-ig

  5-26

  Peter Mihalyi

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  121

  The regime change in 1989/1990 has not produced the expected result: Hungary has not been able to catch-up with the Western market economies. Can Hungary grow 2-3 times faster then its competitors during the next 20 years, as the present Hungarian government declared in its economic plans? Can Hungary improve its relative position and catch-up with the per capita GDP level of the EU-27 average by 2030? The conclusion of the paper is that this is very unlikely to happen. But there is ample room for accelerating productivity growth, and in this regard, every percentage difference counts enormously in the long-term. Three factors of production are analyzed: the natural-physical-geographical endowments of Hungary (N), Labour (L) and the capital stock (C). The following new findings are discussed. First, contrary to the widely held view, the amount of labour currently used by the Hungarian economy is not low in international comparison. The education of the workforce is also adequate. The problem is its allocation: too many workers are employed in low productivity, small firms. The only way forward is to promote the concentration of enterprises, to support the increase in the number of medium-sized and large firms. Second, the rate of domestic savings needs to be increased considerably, to allow for a low-cost financing of investments. In turn, this requires a substantial reform in three areas: healthcare, pensions and higher education. As long as the welfare state exists in its present form and these three spending items are largely financed by the state, one cannot reasonably expect households to save and accumulate families" long-term reserves in financial assets. But before these changes happen the political alite must accept that the obstacles to productivity growth have to be removed from the legal and political stuctures.

  JEL classification: E66, O47, O50, O52