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• Market efficiency in relation to the financial crisis of 2008

  31-50

  Balázs Bakosi

  Ákos Szűcs

  Views:

  346

  After the financial crisis of 2008 many scholars criticised the validity of the market efficiency hypothesis of the modern financial literature. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the adequacy of market efficiency based on Hungarian, and as a reference, on American securities. Besides classical statistical tools (autocorrelation function, Ljung-Box test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), we also used new approaches of the literature (Variance Ratio test). In addition to the simple hypothesis tests we tried to separate the different type of time series and explain the reasons for the different behaviours.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: G140

• Study the past as if you would define the future!? - Testing the effectiveness of technical analysis on the Budapest Stock Exchange

  201-214

  Adam Farago

  Views:

  130

  Technical analysis is an attempt to forecast prices of a financial asset by the study of its past prices. This technique has been an element of financial practice for many decades, but it has not recieved general acceptance in academic literature. In this paper I analyze the effectiveness of certain technical trading rules on the Budapest Stoch Exchange between 1999 and 2005. In the first step I test if there are trading rules that can be qualified as effective when the analysis is applited to the full seven-year period. Some worries arise concerning the long-term analysis, so in the next step I test whether the effectiveness of the trading rules change if the analysis is applied to one-year sub-periods. The results indicate that it is worth implementing the short-term analysis because it shows a different picture of the effectiveness of the trading rules. However, the results of the short-term analysis show that if these trading rules are tested on one-year sub-periods, it becomes doubtful that they are effective.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: G14, G15

• Sustainability of growth in countries with diverse backgrounds in the light of main international indices

  145-168

  Tamas Borko

  Views:

  102

  The paper tries to answer why fossil fuel abundant countries with diverse backgrounds perform differently depending on the dominance of the advantages or disadvantages accruing from natural resource wealth. With the contribution of the most popular competitiveness and institutional indices the determining factors are indentified. The distinctive factors are market efficiency, the quality of the business environment, innovative capability, the quality and efficiency of governmental, market and judicial institutions, the low level of corruption and the existence of political and civil freedom.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: O13, O17, Q32