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• Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in Hungary

  39-49

  Zoltan Bakucs

  Views:

  149

  This paper employs the theoretical model developed by Shagaian et al. 2002, to analyse the response of various sectors of the Hungarian national economy to changes in the money supply. Johansen co-integration and vector error correction methodology is used to test whether agricultural prices overshoot their long-run equilibrium path if a monetary shock hits the system. Our results emphasise that agricultural prices do adjust faster to changes in macroeconomic conditions, in particular money supply, than industrial prices, thus affecting relative prices in the short-run; however, strict long-run money neutrality does
  not hold. The result is that flexible sectors of the national economy, such as agriculture or services, bear the burden of adjustment, with significant consequences for farms’ viability.

  Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classifications: C32, E51, P22, Q11.

• Western Balkans: Opportunities for Agriculture on the Eve of EU Accession

  52-73

  Tamas Mizik

  Views:

  156

  The Western Balkan countries can be characterised by their shared goal, which is to achieve the quickest accession to the European Union. Agriculture is an important obstacle to achieving this goal. The role of agriculture differs widely among the countries analysed but is more important than the average of the EU. This study gives a comprehensive overview of the most important agricultural indicators. These indicators allow us to acquire a precise picture of the sector’s relevance, production structure, efficiency and international relations. After demonstrating changes in input use, production structure, prices, terms of trade and agricultural policies, the next section identifies some of the reasons for these changes. The analysis concentrates on the most recent years for which data is available. In the last few years Serbia became the leading producer and the only net exporter of agricultural goods in the region. Nevertheless, the current situation is endangered by several issues, such as imbalanced sectoral production, fragmented production structure, relatively low yields, unfavourable export composition, and poor food hygiene and quality control, which anticipate painful and difficult measure which need to be carried out.

  JEL classification: Q15, Q17, Q18