Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancy period, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quanti...ty. In order to predict the expected risk factors, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 km resolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods without frost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades.
There are three main pear production regions in Hungary. The most relevant is theWest-Transdanubian (Zala, Vas and Gyôr-Moson-Sopron counties), where up to 30% of total pear production occurs. The second most productive region is Pest County, where pear is grown mostly in gardens and garden plots, resulting in 15-20% of Hungarian production. I...n the northern Hungarian region (Bodrog valley in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád counties), the microclimate is perfect for optimal pear production. In our analysis, we focused on four plantations that are dominant in pear production in Hungary. Two of them are situated in south-western Hungary, one of them is in South Transdanubia and one is in North Hungary. Considering the personal attitude of the decision maker towards risk, the best alternative is ‘Williams’ in Alsóberecki, as the yield risk is the lowest with this variety, while the second best alternative is ‘Bosc Beurre,’ also produced in Alsóberecki. This is an irrigated area, and this fact evidently decreases the yield risk. The highest risk is in Bánfapuszta and in Zalasárszeg, for the non-irrigated ‘Williams’ variety. The highest yield with the lowest risk can be obtained with irrigation. Nevertheless, in the case that relevant data are available, and by incorporating cost and expected profit data, the stochastic dominance method is suitable for financial risk assessment, as well.
Hungary possesses very good agroecological conditions even in a European comparison. Agriculture and food production is highly important despite its decreasing relative economic significance, since providing high quality and affordable food for the population is a basic social necessity and one of the decisive factors in quality of life. The de...velopment of vegetable and fruit production is of great importance both from a healthy nutrition as well as from a comparative advantage (cheap labour, expertise, production traditions, favourable climate) point of view.Vegetable and fruit consumption per capita is lower than in developed countries, which is a decisive indicator of healthy nutrition, but improvement is continuous and desired. Appropriate quality and quantity in production is a requirement to meet customers’ needs in a highly competitive market from one year to the next. Hungary can only be competitive if production results are improved while risks are reduced. Fruit production is a sector with high capital requirements, risk assessment is very important from a production, investment as well as from a national economy point of view. Our examinations will focus on production risk, which is present in the annual fluctuation of average yields, especially as a result of extreme weather factors.
County Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry grown in Hungary. Successful production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during the blooming period, being most decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict y...ields expected, the characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phonological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. Data of 7 indicators have been traced: number of frosty days, the absolute minimum temperatures, means of minimum temperatures, number of days when daily means were above 10°C, means of maximum temperatures, number of days without precipitation, and number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades. The indicators being associated with certain risky events may serve for the prediction of the future recommendations to prevent damages.
Hungary possesses excellent agri-ecological potentials even in an international comparison. Despite their decreasing economic weight, agriculture and food production are of great significance, since the supply of the population with high quality and inexpensive food is a fundamental social demand and one of the essentials of the quality of life.... The development of vegetable and food production is of great importance both from the aspect of healthy nutrition and comparative advantages (cheap workforce, professional expertise, traditions of production, climate favourable for quality). Within the Hungarian fruit production apple and sour cherry are essential branches in virtue of their significance. It is widely known, that – though to a different extent in the case of certain fruit varieties – satisfaction of the need for appropriate habitat is one of the important conditions of a decent quality and secure production. In my research, I analyse the territorial distribution, production standard and production risk of the Hungarian apple and sour cherry branches. I did not have the opportunity – because of the imperfections of the database – to compare long time series, therefore I examine the random effects affecting production by using the data of 3 years (they have the same content). I ranked and assessed each habitat and the production risks of certain fruit species compared to each other on the basis of indexes of relative deviation.
Experiences of the last decades showed univocally that the climatic changes, especially the warming up, influenced clearly the phenology, i.e. speed of growth and development of plants. To check the effects, the phenological studies became a topic of special interest. Our research has been performed at Újfehértó, the Research Institute of Fr...uit Growing and Extension, where the respective database accumulated observations during the period 1984–2005, where the meteorological data as well as the parallel phenological diary referring to the varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’ during the period 1984–1991 have been utilised. The method of calculating the sum of daily mean temperatures, “degree days”, is based on the observation that the plants are able to utilise cumulatively – in growth and development – the temperature above a set basic temperature. Our phenology model examined the correlation between the sum of degree days and the date of sprouting (budburst). The basic temperature has been determined by optimization, above which (threshold temperature) the accumulation of daily means was most active, or alternatively, below which the daily means are most sensitively expressed in the phenology. The model has been extended to the calculation of the end of rest period (endodormancy) – by optimization as well. Our phenology model will be suitable for two main purposes: for estimating the time of budburst for the Hungarian region during the next decades calculated on the basis of regionally downscaled climate models; on the other hand, by applying our model, the risk of damage caused by spring frosts could be estimated more exactly than earlier.