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Heat waves in Hungarian plant production
113-118.Views:193A momentous inference of heat waves is the economic effect. The main demage after the human problems will caused by theese extreme events in agriculture. For example a long hot peiod without any percipitation can exterminate not only the annual yield, but also it can demage or in extreme situation it can destroy the whole orchard. Especially endangered most of the fruits, because an extreme summer with high temperature which usually goes hand in hand with an arid period can modify growth of the plant. Our investigations show that according to the most widely accepted climate change scenarios heat waves are expected to be essentially longer and hotter than in the past. It might happen that events we now define as heat waves last through entire summer. Although it will not be general, the length and intensity of present heat waves could also multiply. Based on data provided by some global circulation models, we might be face an event that exceeds the hottest heat waves of the 20th century by as much as 12 °C. This study also offers a survey of the methodology of heat wave definition. Besides traditional calculations, we present two unconventional methods by introducing minimum and maximum temperature heat waves. We show in what points this approach is different from those usually adopted and what extra information it may offer.As an extension of the usual studies, with considering the length of events, we analyse the development of two variants – temperature and duration – and, as a result, classify the extreme heat events according to both length and intensity.
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Hail data analyses
99-103.Views:132Long term data of hail events of three meteorological stations (Budapest, Debrecen and Szeged) were investigated. The hail event frequencies show significant differences in the time period 1901–2000 when the first and the second half of the century are compared. The frequencies of hail events are higher in the first half of the century in case of Debrecen and Szeged while it is higher in the second 50 years for Budapest. None of the frequencies of hail events in between 2001–2008 are significantly higher, though the average of precipitation fell during these events is higher except for Szeged. We have found that the results about the monthly distribution of hail events differ from the ones in the literature; the ratio of hail events is significantly less in the vegetation period.
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Correlation of precipitation distribution and quality sweet cherry production
39-43.Views:259Sweet and sour cherry need 550–600 mm yearly precipitation. The critical period is 1–1.5 month after flowering, it is normally between 15.April – 15. June in Hungary. The rain induced fruit cracking is also a critical and costly problem for cherry growers. Fruits grown under arid conditions are less resistant against rainfall during harvest and up to 50–60% crack damage may occur. A computer program was developed to calculate the precipitation related production risks of sweet cherry. Focus of the research was Zala county. Spatial distribution of precipitation was compared in two directions (East and North of Zala county) based on the data of meteorological stations. The first results indicate that the developed method estimates the risks quite well, compared to the farm experiment results. The developed computer program can be parameterised according to the user’s requirements, this allows to take into account the real variety structure of a given orchard.
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Extreme weather events inWest Hungary
29-32.Views:293Agricultural production is a rather risky activity, as it is largely exposed to extreme weather events. This paper focuses on the frost and hail data in springtime, affecting fruit production in West Hungary. Regarding absolute minimum temperatures in April, significant increase of the standard deviations could be observed. Among the sites examined Nagykanizsa shows the highest risk values. According to our evaluation Nagykanizsa is not recommended to plant sour cherry, sweet cherry and apricot orchards because in some years spring frost will occur. If the plantation is in Zalaegerszeg, Szombathely, Gyôr or Keszthely than usage of frost prevention system is recommended. Siófok is the only area to grow apricot with good result.
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Climate change impacts and product lines
79-83.Views:237This paper summarizes the main effects of extreme weather events on agricultural production and demonstrates their economic consequences. For cost-benefit analysis of economic impacts and for determination of risk levels simulation models are needed that contains the relationship between product line levels and elements. WIN-SIM model is developed for this goal, specialized for wine production. The model is suitable to analyze the market share, the cost and income relations as well as the relation structure of the product lines. The four levels of the model (site, vine growing, wine production and wine market levels) have individual values added from the aspect of end product, where the product line sets out from the site level and gets through the levels up to the consumer segments. Theoretically, all elements can be connected to any element of the next level and sublevel, but there are “prohibited contacts” because of professional, regulation or production practice reasons.