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Calculation of climatic probability of winter and spring frost damages in the main peach and apricot growing districts of Hungary
99-106.Views:914The probability of winter and spring frost damages experienced in peach and apricot plantations has been assessed in 5 growing regions of Hungary (Szeged-Szatymaz, around the lake Balaton, Mecsekalja, hills of Buda, Mátraalja) and (Mecsekalja, hills of Buda, PestGodo116, Duna-Tisza Mize, Matra-Bükkalja) during the period between 1951 and 2000.
Frost tolerance of flower buds on a given shoot sample is expressed by the mean value assessed after frost damage (LT50), and the meteorological records of the growing sites raised between 1951 and 2000 are used to calculate the probability of frost damage. In peach, the difference between growing sites and between varieties may become two fold as for the chance of repeated frost damage at a probability of 50 %. In apricot, the probability of frost damage may exhibit differences between growing sites up to 20 % as for susceptible varieties, and 16 % for frost tolerant varieties. Frost damage may vary between 4 and 18 % depending on the genuine frost tolerance of the varieties. Peach is afflicted by low temperature causing substantial losses of yield at the highest probability in the region Szeged-Szatymaz and at the lowest in Mátraalja. Apricot is, on the other hand, most endangered in the Duna-Tisza Mize region, while the lowest probability of frost damage is expected around Mecsek and Buda.
The critical period of frost damage in the mid of January in Szeged-Szatymaz region, in Mecsekalja the mid of February showed the highest probability of frost damage. All growing sites are frequented at high chances by frost damages occurring during and closely after the blooming period. Duna-Tisza köze is mainly afflicted in early March, whereas Mátra-Bükkalja in mid of January and each March.
The probability of temperatures below zero degree has been assessed in all the 5 regions observed. Around April 5-8 the probability of freezing temperatures diminishes steeply at all sites, whereas the risk of frost increases again around April 9— 11. That climatic peculiarity of should be taken into consideration in choosing growing sites or varieties.
Postulating the effects of a global warming up of the climate, the chances of avoiding frost damages at different growing sites by delaying the blooming dates are considered. According to our calculations, the delay of blooming by 5 days may diminish the risk of frost damage by 4-20 % at the growing sites examined, whereas a delay of 10 days reduces the risk by 37-85 % in both fruit species.
Calculations offered an answer on the question of climatic changes, whether the probability of winter and spring frosts damage changed during the 50 years. The long list of data shows the diminishing chances of winter frosts, while the probability of temperatures risking spring frost damages increased after the early 1970-es up to now.
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Spatial and temporal variation of extremely abundant maxima of precipitation in Hungary during the period between 1951 and 2010
107-114.Views:20610The study deals with the accumulated database of 16 meteorological stations in Hungary during a period of 60 years. The purpose was to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of the appearance of extreme values in the daily distribution of data concerning precipitation. We strived to answer the question whether the frequency of incidences of daily maxima did they change or not during the 60 year-long period in the main growing regions of the country. It is demonstrated on geographical maps how the size and frequency of precipitation episodes ensued, and what are the typical traits of changes in intensity as well as in frequency of happenings projected according to their spatial and temporal distribution. From the point of view of fruit and vegetable growing, it is of prime interest what kind of frequency and intensity of changes occurred in precipitation. The temporal distribution of extremities though did not seem to change signifi cantly in some areas, but the recognition of changes may help conspicuously the planning and the choice between alternatives of species and varieties as well as technologies of horticultural managements for the long run. Extremely intense rains during a short time may cause erosion and stagnant water, thus we have to know what are the odds of risk. The temporary distribution of changes helps us to judge upon the reality of anxieties, which are expected according to the existence of trends. Seasonal or monthly distribution is visualised by maps, what is expected and what is accidental as for a decision in planning. The spatial distribution of coeffi cients of variation help us to decide what is the local chance of extreme happenings at different parts of the country and what is its coeffi cient of uncertainty. The risk of any undertaking dependent on conditions of weather could be expressed numerically by a coeffi cient of risk.
