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  • Effects of fermented chicken manure products on the N mineralization rate of the soil using the incubation method
    199-204
    Views:
    184

    In our study, the effect of fermented and specially added poultry manure products (superabsorbent polymer (SAP), bentonite and Aegis as a mycorrhizal inoculum) were investigated in a short soil incubation experiment – at 60% water capacity level - on sandy soil. Soil samples were collected from two layers of the incubation pots after the second and fourth week to check the status of the tested products and the processes in the soil. The pH and the electric conductivity (EC) of the samples were measured using an electrochemical method, while the ammonium and nitrate content of the samples was determined with a photometric method. Soil pH and EC values slightly were decreased during the experiment. Our results pointed out that the increasing dose of SAP caused lower soil pH. The nitrate content of the soil did not change significantly during the experiment. It was found that the increasing SAP content in the products, due to its cross-linked structural property, protected the nitrate ions from leaching. Our results suggest that applied SAP does not bind the nutrient ions so tightly in its structure that it competes with the plant for uptake.

  • Development of the antioxidant indexes (FRAP, TFC, TPC) of scabbing resistant apple varieties in storage
    89-94
    Views:
    143

    One of the most important groups of bioactive substances in apples are antioxidants, which have a health-preserving effect. The amount of these compounds varies not only during the ripening of the apple fruit, but also continuously during post-harvest storage. A growing group of health-conscious consumers are looking for apple varieties with a nutritional value that satisfies their needs.

    In the scope of our research, we examined 5 apple varieties originating from the Derecske horticultural site of KITE cPlc. in 2016. The plantation was planted to be suitable for intensive apple production. Samples were collected at the time of maturity (August-October) of the given variety. The 5 examined apple varieties (Gaia, Isaaq, Modí, Smeralda and Fujion) are all resistant to apple scab (fungal disease caused by Venturia inaequalis). The 2-month storage experiment was conducted at 16–17 °C, which had an aggressive effect on our stored apples. Total polyphenol (TPC) and flavonoid (TFC) content as well as FRAP values of the apples were measured. Measurements were taken immediately after harvest and after 1 and 2 months of storage. Our results were evaluated by using the IBM SPSS Statistics 20 software. Our aim was to compare the antioxidant results of 5 scab-resistant apple varieties, which change continuously during storage.

    The antioxidant content of our apple varieties increased during 2 months storage. The best result was achieved by the Modí apple variety (FRAP: 467.32 mg/100g; TFC: 317.76 mg/100g; TPC: 1771.97 mg/100g). Consumers may want to consume apples stored for a longer period of time if they are to absorb large amounts of antioxidants.

  • Financial Analysis of Agricultural Enterprises’ Economic Results
    270-279
    Views:
    39

    The main objective of this paper is to give an overview about the economic results and financial status of agricultural enterprises in Hajdu-Bihar Count, as well as, froa methodology viewpoint,find the place of the used indexes in the system of effectivity indexes in farm management . From the complex database describing the enterprises, the figures on the balance sheets and profit and loss accounts were used and analysed. As a result of the analysis the below statements can be made:
    The owner’s equity ratio within the total equity is very different in corporations and in individual farms. The lower values in case of corporations show their indebtedness. At the same time, the figures indicate that it is more difficult for individual farms to receive loans.
    The average of dynamic indebtedness indexes, in case of individuals are closer to 0 which generally derives from the low level of liabilities. The same indexes of corporations o the other hand show significant indebtedness. The figures indicate that the yearly cash flow can hardly cover the net liabilities.
    The profitability proportional to the production value is generally low, mostly negative, independent from size and organisational form.
    As a summary, it can be said, that individual as well as corporate farms suffer financing problems, the nature of these problems is different in the two groups. On the on hand, the operation and development of the individual, mostly the smaller, farms are hindered by the difficulties of acquiring external capital. On the other hand, the results of corporate, mostly the cooperative, farms is impeded by the burdens of liabilities accumulated in previous years.

  • Development of a Decision Assisting Soil Information System in Agriculture
    130-133
    Views:
    75

    Hungarian agriculture may be characterized by the industry-like, conventional farming of the past decades. This form of management concentrated exclusively on functions aimed at production. We have to decrease this disproportion, especially when joining to the EU, by reducing the intensive agricultural regions and adjusting to the goals of the 2000-2006 NAEP programmes, forming such an agricultural system which integrates the advantages of both environmental protection and complex agricultural systems based on rational foundations. Nevertheless it’s a rational decision to make the soil information system with an exact spatial informatics background as a foundation of agricultural system, because this promotes easy handling as well the connection to possible subsequent modules.

  • Effect of facility location on haulage efficiency
    204-209
    Views:
    81

    In the 21st century, every economic sector must use the chances of evolution, technical and technological acquisitions, due to the level of competitiveness on the market. Such a sector as agriculture, where technology and the ideology of production are changing and adapting very slow to global expectations, by taking maximum advantage of opportunities, is a more central question. The greatest problems of Hungarian agriculture’s competitiveness are that this sector is very weak in capital and production costs make producers uncompetitive on the market. We can remedy this situation by using sources logically, purposefully and system approached. Logistics can provide the most useful assistance in such efforts.
    In agricultural logistics, there is a great deal of uncovered territory. The aim is to transplant methods that are working correctly in other sectors into the agricultural sector, while maintaining development. One of the most important areas is transport logistics and material movement. Methods of analyzing and planning transportation and material movement found in professional literature do not take into account the specific needs of agricultural production. My aim is to examine the effect of facility location in the running of an enterprise. Through the results, I make suggestions for modifying the currently used logistic method and suggest further methods of examination. The effect of agro-specific needs must be examined in carrying out innovations and making logistical planning methods reliable.

  • Sustainable energy management – the importence of the renewable energy sources, their difficulties and chances
    145-154
    Views:
    90

    The biggest question of the century standing before us is that if people will be able to direct the development to sustainable direction. One of the components of global problems threatening
    us is the pressure that the energy management puts on the environment, which can be significantly lowered by utilizing renewable energy sources. The aim of my study is to draft the
    model of a sustainable energy management, putting the renewable energy sources into it in a sensible way, regarding the possibilities of Hungary.

  • Extras of the rural system of areas
    271-273
    Views:
    113

    The essay describes the rural system of areas as a system unit of mutually necessitating natural, social, economic and human environments. A new rural developmental model has been developed to achieve the effects that strengthen this system. The taxonomically interpreted effects are achieved through guiding projects. The author presents the connections of biomass – bioenergy generation to covey the message in practice.

  • Comparative study of regional airports for summing up the competitiveness of Debrecen Airport
    103-106
    Views:
    108

    The Debrecen International Airport in commercial means might be the eastern gate of the European Union. This statement is in question these days .In the neighbouring countries like Slovakia, and Romania the old commercial airports have came through major renovation, and technical improvement. With Romania joining to the Schengen Agreement, Debrecen is going to lose its comparative advantage. So, it is time to follow up what has remained from the five years ago still existing technical and commercial priority of Debrecen aerodrome. In this study looking through the technical background of Kosice, Arad, Cluj-Napoca, Targu-Mures, Oradea, Baia-Mare, Satu-Mare, and Debrecen international airports we have found that Satu-Mare, Arad, and Targu-Mures might be major competitors af Debrecen airport. The level of installed technology has exceeded the one in Debrecen in case of Targu-Mures, and Arad. The situation is the same in Kosice which the absolute market leader in the region.

  • Overview of the evolutionary history and the role in citric acid production of alternative oxidase
    83-88
    Views:
    135

    All organisms are exposed to countless environmental effects, which influence in a disadvantageous way their life processes. They continuously adapt to the changing conditions and respond to the stress impacts by defence mechanisms. Through different signal transduction pathways they are able to increase or decrease the expression of their genes and consequently modify their metabolic processes. My interest focuses on alternative oxidase (AOX) enzyme whose expression is often increased under biotic and abiotic stress. The so far proven and putative functions of the AOX play a role in the ability of organisms to adapt to different conditions, such as heavy metals accumulation, pathogenic infection, oxidative stress and lack of oxygen or nutrients.

    AOX is a member of the di-iron carboxylate protein family. Members of the di-iron carboxylate protein family are present in all kingdoms of life. They are considered to have ancient origin. It is believed that their sulfide-resistant and oxygen-reducing ability played a role in the survival of organisms during the transition between the anaerobic and the aerobic world. It is assumed that the AOX arose in eukaryotes through a primary endosymbiotic event, and this event made possible the development of mitochondria. Afterwords, vertical inheritance, and secondary and tertiary endosimbiotic events led to its spread among eukaryotes. It is assumed that bacteria obtained AOX by horizontal gene transfer from plants.

    AOX-catalyzed alternative respiration plays an important role in the operation of energy-producing and biosynthesizing system of microorganisms. In these cases, the regeneration of reduced cofactors is an essential condition, and therefore may be rate-limiting for biotechnological processes, including the citric acid production.

  • Brief overview of the polymorphism analysis of genes affecting pig prolificacy (LEP, PRLP, ESR BF, EGF, FSH-β, H2A.Z)
    5-10
    Views:
    169

    Researches are being performed around the world to increase swine prolificacy by using marker-assisted selection (MAS). The present study processes researches of polymorphism examinations on 7 genes. The result of the experiments showed that the leptin gene (LEP) prolactin receptor gene (PRLP), estrogen receptor gene (ESR), properdin B (BF) epidermal growth factor (EGF), follicle-stimulating beta gene (FSH-ß) and Z member of the H2A histon family gene (H2A.Z) and their alleles have a positive effect on reproductive characteristics of different swine breeds. In addition to this, leptin gene (LEP) influences the build, meat production and growth of body fat. Further studies are concerned with the polymorphism of an increasing number of genes, which enables a faster genetic development of swine breeding.

  • Portable snapshot spectral imaging for agriculture
    221-225
    Views:
    261

    High-resolution proximal and remote sensing applications can consolidate sustainable, prevention- and precision-oriented crop management strategies to decrease production risks. This paper shows significant perspectives, own developments and technical aspects of high resolution remote sensing in the context of field applications. Moreover, we provide an overview of snapshot hyperspectral imaging and potential field video sensors to identify areas of interest for their future development. One of the main conclusions of our paper is that non-scanning snapshot hyperspectral imaging technology may enable researchers to overcome the gap in the “point to image” transition of field sensing, while providing a flexible solution for regular variable-rate applications.

  • Preparatory study for carbon sequestration modelling of agroforestry systems in Hungary: The assessment of the yield class distribution of windbreaks
    73-78
    Views:
    42

    The escalating carbon dioxide emissions leading to global climate change are acknowledged as a paramount environmental challenge in the twenty-first century. The significance of land use systems in stabilising carbon dioxide levels and enhancing carbon sink potential has gained noteworthy attention from both the scientific and political communities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasises that agroforestry systems present vital prospects for synergising climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts, offering substantial technical mitigation potential. Windbreaks are well-known agroforestry systems in Hungary and form an important part of agricultural landscapes. The improved agroforestry subsidy system in our country makes it relevant to model the carbon sequestration potential of windbreaks. In the framework of the ForestLab project we plan to develop a carbon sequestration model specific for Hungarian agroforestry systems. In this study, as a preparatory step of the model development, we assessed the yield class distribution of Hungarian windbreaks by tree species group and identified variables that had significant effect on yield class based on the data of the National Forestry Database. Our results show that among the examined effects the most important predictor of the yield class of windbreaks was the tree species group, followed by the thickness of the productive soil layer and the hydrology of the site.

  • Analysis of the Environmental Status of Nagykálló Subregion
    362-367
    Views:
    97

    The third smallest region of Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county is the Nagykálló subregion. Its territory is 377 km2 and its inhabitants number 32.526. Due to the fact that industrial development arrived late, the environmental status of this subregion was saved from serious ecological degradation. The quality of the environment shows a reasonable picture in many respects, comparing to the general survey of the country. The air quality of the region can be qualified as acceptable. Leaving some critical points out of consideration, it is better than the national average. It is favourable from the human environment point of view that the region is free of extremes, and has a balanced climate. The supply of drinking water is above 95%, and the remainsing water requirements are supplied by artesian wells. The water supply network is fully extended in the subregion. The most significant environmental noise source is traffic, including public road traffic, which causes a problem in the town of Nagykálló. The situation of the collection, transportation, and placement of the settlement’s solid wastes show a similar picture to the status of the country. The environmental status of the region is included in the SWOT analysis.

  • Connections between land usage, property structure and agricultural enterprises in Hungary
    31-34
    Views:
    88

    The last decade of Hungarian agriculture was marked and changes which affected all parts of agricultural production. This process resulted in a new ownership and organisation structure. The paper presents the effects of the changes in ownership on land use and the various enterprise forms and intends to outline the main tendencies. In general, it can be stated that the role of agriculture in GDP production and employment is decreasing in Hungary, but according to concurrent opinions of experts, agriculture still has and will have a major role in income production and the ease of social tensions in rural areas in the future as well. Hungary’s accession to the European Union provides new chances and new prospects for Hungarian agriculture and rural areas. Hungarian agriculture became a part of the internal market which includes about 450 million people. The safety of marketing became stronger, the rate of financial support is increasing and the income of growers will increase in the future. This process implies more obligations and the keeping of strict regulations. Competition inside the internal market is intensifying, competitiveness will be more important while the chances of development and investment of the growers and the feasibility of more effective land use are increasing. After the accession, integration into the directives formulated in the CAP and the packages of measures accepted in it is framework have growing importance.
    These directives encourage farm-reallocation, namely the rational estate concentration. In general, it can be stated that rational estate concentration, and more effective land use as a consequence, will increase the efficiency of agricultural production.

  • Farms in the system of European supportpolicy
    79-83
    Views:
    82

    Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been having a great past, it is over numerous direction and structure changes in the last half century. After the Treaty of Rome, the harmonization of he agricultural structure and the production of Member States has been launched, during which the economic changes in the world and in Europe were continuously being kept track of. By using common experience, they strived to develop an agricultural sector that supplies the Member States of the Community with food, while the competitiveness and living circumstances of family farms are being improved. The general directions outlined in Stresa in 1958 were significantly redrawn owing to the transformed market conditions and EU accessions. The subsidization of family farms and the improvement of their profitability are having a stressed importance nowadays, too. Our country, as the fully qualified member of the European Union tries to meet its obligations undertaken in the accession treaty and therefore to develop an agricultural sector carrying out diversified agricultural production with a healthy age structure. The aim of the study is to specifically overview the issue of common agricultural policy by stressing the main development points and to introduce the Hungarian conditions of family farms. Besides, there will be an evaluation of the research works examining the income conditions of family farms in the North Great Plain region.

  • Presentation of sales price reserves for live lamb
    37-45
    Views:
    92

    Although sheep breeding in Hungary is grounded in strong traditions, its activities only comprise 1% of the total production value generated from agriculture, and 2% of that for animal-based products. The most significant portion of incomes earned in the Hungarian sheep sector has, for years now, stemmed from the sale of live animals. The sector is decidedly export-oriented, as the domestic demand for its main product, i.e. lamb meat, and is minimal, equaling some 20-30dkg per person per year. Part of the sold animals is sold to market as dairy sheep, while the greater
    part is sold in the category of lamb carcasses. For this reason, the average weight of slaughter sheep has lied between 19-22 kg for years now. The target markets for live lamb sales are predominately Italy and Greece. In Greece, movement on this market has shown an upward tendency in recent years; noteworthy are also sales to Austria, Holland, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Poland. In 2003, we exported sheep meat in the form of carcasses to Italy, as well as to Germany, and of these exports, 94% went to Italy, while the remaining 6% went to Germany.
    Among sheep products, only the trade balance for live animal sales is positive. But even for such producers, only those who are specialized in intensive breeding and those sheep farms  “targeting” meat production can obtain earnings. Specialized literature on the sector argues that the quality of Hungarian lamb has diminished dramatically and is beginning to lose its market position. If Hungarian lamb does not meet market expectations, then it will only be bought from producers at lower prices.
    My research focuses on those factors which influence price. I separately discuss the question of quality, as one of the most important decisive factors on price. Within this discussion, I describe the market expectations which actually have an effect on the acceptance of live animals for sale on commission. In practice, after the problems of quality, the next most important question is that of when sale is made. In the course of my research, I studied the development of averages for sales on commission of live lambs using statistical methods. The most important problem of this sector is the hierarchical system used in sales: this is the topic hich neither the producer, nor the buyer, wish to discuss, not even with each other. On the basis of the information at my disposal, I outlined the levels of traders and individual levels used to arrive at commission prices. Finally, I examined the components of the production value of live lamb sales. The results I obtained quantified the key role of the prices and the yield, as well as the factors influencing income. 

  • Complex problem analysis of the Hungarian milk product chain
    43-47
    Views:
    98

    Hungarian dairy sector went through significant changes in past two decades. The most significant changes were caused by our accession to the European Union. In Hungary milk production remarkably declined after EU accession. The size of our dairy herd has been practically reducing since the political transformation, but increasing yields per cow could compensate it in some way and for some time. However, in recent years, increasing yield per cow came to a stop and in parallel, the number of cows declined further and faster. Low prices, high production costs and tightening quality requirements ousted several producers from the market in past years. Feeding cost represents the highest rate in cost structure of production, but animal health expenditures and various losses are also significant. There are undeniably competitive disadvantages in the level of organisation and labour productivity; however competitiveness already depends on cost effectiveness in the medium run. In Hungary concentration of the dairies is relatively strong in spite of the relative high number of corporations. The dairies compete with each other and with the export market for the raw material and the better exploitation of their capacities. Applied technology of the Hungarian dairies lags behind the Western-European competitors’; in addition they have handicaps in efficiency and product innovation. Presence of chain of stores being dominant in sale of milk products does also not favour in all respects to the position of the dairies. The aforementioned retail chains are namely consumer-centric, engage in price follower conduct and weaken the position of the dairies with their private label products. As a result of increasing import of milk and milk products Hungary became a net importer in recent years. Today, disposable income still essentially determines the consumption habits of price-sensitive consumers. Loyalty for Hungarian products is not typical, consumers are open for import products being preferred by retail chains. In addition Hungarian milk and milk product consumption is about half of the Union average and it is far behind the level being necessary for healthy eating. In Hungary lack of competitiveness and vertical integration relationships and backwardness are revealing among the dairy farmers and the dairies, while chain of stores are in unprecedented “monopolistic situation”; the whole sector can be characterised by defencelessness. 

  • New approach in soil tillage – bases of the precision crop production
    123-127
    Views:
    116

    A new approach is needed in soil tillage practice. The important achievements of this are the recognition of the risk – poor tillage practices, poor soil quality, soil state defects, and climate extremes etc. – the need for the development of risk reduction, prevention, remediation and maintenance of the favorable soil state. In this paper 13 main soil state defects are listed, to which the prevention and improving tasks are also commented. In the second part of the paper the most important soil tillage tasks are summarized in 30 sections and realization of these points may promote the implementation of precision plant production.

  • The role of self regulation and market mechanisms in tertiary education
    91-97
    Views:
    114

    The social functions of tertiary education have gone through considerable changes with the transformation of economic environment in the more than two past decades. In the decade after the political transformation the number of students in the tertiary education increased more than threefold. Personal interests, social needs and the demands of the society lay different claims to the performance of this sector. The needs for structural transformation of the tertiary education system are connected with the development of social and economic processes. The changes of legal regulations determining the operation of the sector are induced by these factors, which refer to the autonomic characters of the public participants. Tertiary education possesses a specific market environment each of whose characters – both the supply and demand sides – strive for the enforcement of self-regulatory mechanisms.

  • Effects of paraffine oil on leaf and berry mycobiota on two grape varieties
    61-66
    Views:
    206

    Application of fungicides have advantages and also some direct or indirect disadvantages, such as imbalance and/or fungicide resistance in microbe population. To avoid these problems the development of alternative, eco-friendly methods like mostly spraying with oils are in the focus nowadays. The investigations of the effects of fungicides on microbiota in some cultivations can give a more complex view to this topic and developmental possibilities. In the present study, our aim was testing of the effects of paraffine oil (as alternative fungicide) on microbial properties (CFU and rate of filamentous fungi and yeasts) of Chardonnay and Kékfrankos leaves and berries.

    Our results from 2014 showed that the application of paraffine oil as sole spray agent can decrease the presence of saprophytic filamentous fungi on the berries of Chardonnay (susceptible for fungal infections). In the case of Kékfrankos berries opposite properties were observed, which may be the result of the absorption of oil by the thick wax layer of this variety. The oil treatment did not affect the yeast population of Chardonnay and Kékfrankos berries contrary to negative effect of the regular pesticide treatment. The selective fungicide effect of paraffine oil against filamentous fungal population caused the accumulation of yeast cells in the mycobiota of grape berries. The careful use of this yeasts in spontaneous fermentation can improve the aroma profile of wines. The year of 2015 did no prefer the growth of fungi, therefore no interesting properties were detected in the mycobiota of grape varieties. The occurence of the harmful saprophytic filamentous fungi predicted to be increased in mild climate agricultures as the result of the climate change.

    In summary, the paraffine oils are seem to be promising tools for the eco-friendly control of harmful fungi of grapes.

  • Global and national economic importance of pig meat production
    13-20
    Views:
    325

    The pork production has changed significant in recent decades. Pig production fell significantly due to the need to adapt to new animal welfare rules in the sector. Furthermore, change in the meat consumption habit had also a negative effect on pig meat production. Hungarian pig sector and meat industry are in a difficult situation. Due to the high feed prices, the average production cost of pig farming has often exceeded the  producer prices in recent years, therefore an increase of pig population could not be realised yet. Pig market is characterised by cyclical fluctuations of supply and prices, furthermore the decreasing producer price occurred parallel with increasing feed prices.
    Technology is also a critical fact in the Hungarian pig sector because there is a huge gap in the level of technology compared to that of competitive member states. With the development of production methods the efficiency of pork meat production can be improved in an environmentally friendly way.

  • Effect of plant growth promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPRS) on yield and quality of processing tomato under water deficiency
    19-22
    Views:
    216

    Chlorophyll fluorescence was measured of H1015 tomato hybrid with different bacterial treatments (B0–B1–B2–B3) and three irrigation treatments: regular irrigated (RI), deficit irrigated (DI) and non-irrigated conditions (I0). The aim of the experiments was to show the effects of plant growth promoting rhizobacteria on the yield, dry matter and vitamin C content of processing tomato during different irrigation treatments, and measuring the chlorophyll fluorescence during the ripening and development stages. According to the results, none of the bacterial treatments had a statistical effect on the quantity and quality of the tomato and on the chlorophyll fluorescence, only the irrigation. Further studies are needed.

  • Exploring Policy Options for a New Rural America: Conference Synthesis
    53-57
    Views:
    64

    This Conference has more then lived up to its billing, exploring policy options for a new rural America but in addition identifying the basis for a new framework for rural policy. Evidence that a new policy framework is needed is abundant (Stauber). In one way or another, rural areas of North America and of most of the developed world have for at least the past century experienced secular decline compared to urban areas. This has occurred during a period of high government transfers or subsidies, both direct and from policy interventions that have distorted the functioning of markets. It is clear that the systemic discrepancy between rural and urban populations/areas is a public policy priority. It is just as clear that there has not been a consensus on how to address these development and economic issues. Much funding and technical assistance has been allocated with little apparent impact on the condition of rural areas and rural people.

  • DHAC-induced transgene overexpression in 35S-gshI GMO poplar (Populus × canescens)
    78-83
    Views:
    39

    Relative gene expression levels of transgene gshI (γ-glutamylcysteine synthetase cloned from E. coli) were analyzed by qRT-PCR in two transgenic poplar (Populus × canescens) clones (11ggs and 6lgl) and wild type (WT). An extremely high expression level of transgene gshI was observed in the 6lgl clone (13.5-fold) compared to 11ggs (1.0) samples, which level was doubled (1.8-fold) in the DHAC (5.6-dihydro-5'-azacytidine hydrochloride) treated (at 10-4 M for 7 days) 6lgl samples but not in the 11ggs clone (0.4-fold). Contrary to this result, relative copy number of transgene gshI in the 6lgl clone was found to be less 60% less (1.0) then in the 11ggs samples (1.6). Relative expression levels of proper poplar gene gsh1-poplar showed significantly higher responsiveness to DHAC treatment than transgene gshI with the highest expression level in the untransformed (WT) poplar
    clone (19.7-fold) compared to transformed 6lgl (8.7-fold) and 11ggs (2.5-fold) clones. For internal controls constitutively expressed housekeeping genes a-tubulin were applied. For data analysis, the 2−ΔΔCt method was used. DHAC applied in long-term cultures (27 days) at low concentrations (10-8 – 10-6 M) showed morphogenetic activity by initiating de novo root development of leaf discs.

  • How can we determine the expected prices for lambs? – Analysis of the Hungarian and Italian lamb prices
    59-67
    Views:
    72

    The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb went to Italy, which increased its defenselessness. In addition to the sole Italian market showing a permanent demand for Hungarian lambs, it would worth to exploit possibilities in other European markets considering the seasonal differences in Italian prices. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for ”light” and the French, German and English markets for ”heavy” lambs. Both the Italian and Hungarian prices have three major periods: Easter, Ferragusto and Christmas. Due to the changes in the prices, the producers often suffer great losses, therefore, the temporal adaptation of production, market research, technological and development activities need to be improved. It is important that the living of Hungarian sheep breeders should not be dependent solely upon the Italian market, distribution of products should be ensured in other markets too, so that the safety of sales be increased and higher prices and higher income could be achieved. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different in the different countries. Study of the literature and the results obtained in my study on lamb sales called for an analysis and study of the possibilities of price forecasting. In my study, I performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary and Italy for the period between 1996 and 2006 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting methods, seasonal decomposition and SARIMA models are the most precise, producers can achieve a better market position by using these in the practice.