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• How Does Public Debt Change when the Next Crisis Comes - and It Will Come!/the Expected Evolution of Greece's State Debt in the Next Crisis Period/

  91-104

  László Török

  Views:

  219

  It has recently been announced that Greece may withdraw from the Euro-Zone permanent rescue fund's aid program because it has successfully met the conditions imposed on it. Creditors and credit qualifiers also agreed that the Greek economy was on a good growth path. That is why there is a chance that by 2030 the current sovereign gross debt of 182.7 per cent of GDP will fall to 123.3 per cent. The author finds this statement unfoundedly optimistic. He argues that the Greek debt ratio – despite the current optimum economic fundamentals – does not seem to be sustainable. He sees greater probability that in the near future it will again be necessary to release some of the Greek debt. Debt reduction will also mean a new orderly state bankruptcy. The study seeks to highlight how vulnerable and risked the sustainability of current Greek debt financing. Using a macroeconomic model, it shows and justifies how the Greek sovereign debt changes in the case of a crisis that is only half the extent of the previous subprime crisis. If this happens, by 2023, the state debt will rise to more than double the national product, and by 2030 only to the present, otherwise critical, level. It follows that the high risk of financing Greek state debt remains unchanged.

• The Impact of a Coronavirus Epidemic on China’s Public Debt Ratio Growth

  151-159

  László Török

  Views:

  226

  Public opinion in the economic profession is strongly preoccupied with the expected negative economic effects of the coronavirus epidemic. Among the consequences, special attention is paid to the increase in the gross debt of the states. Indeed, based on conventional economic knowledge, it is clear to everyone that the economic downturn and the increase in government sector expenditure will directly lead to a sharp rise in government debt. The study aims to predict an increase in China’s government debt ratio using a macroeconomic model. The study will quantify the rate of increase in China’s public debt based on four theoretically possible scenarios for the course of the coronavirus epidemic. I am aware that it is difficult to apply conventional economic knowledge to China’s state-capitalist system. This is explained by the fact that the theories of the socialist economic model do not apply to China either. At the same time, the functioning of China's economy is closer to that of market-based economies, but the country's structure as a whole cannot be integrated into this framework either. But models describing the economic development of developing national economies cannot be applied to the country either. Nonetheless, I attempt to use conventional economic economics to attempt to quantify the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on China’s sovereign debt ratio. China’s public debt growth rates calculated under different outbreak scenarios are different, but none show an increase that would call into question the financing of China’s public debt.