The Dynamic Effect of Trade Openness, Debt, and Foreign Investment in Ghana’s Economy: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach
Authors
View
Keywords
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Evans Yeboah, Ceesay Lamin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How To Cite
Abstract
The impact of macroeconomic factors offers insight into the performance of an economy. This study investigates the dynamic short- and long-term effect of trade openness, external debt, and foreign direct investment (FDI) within Ghana's economy. Utilizing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing and Granger causality analysis, the study examines data spanning from 1991 to 2022. The results of the ARDL cointegration test reveal a long-term relationship among the variables. However, in the short term, the findings present a mixed effect of FDI and trade openness, with both positive and negative impacts. In the long run, FDI and external debt exhibit a positive influence, whereas trade openness appears to impede economic growth. Furthermore, the Granger causality test identifies a unidirectional causality relationship between the variables and economic growth. The study suggests that the government implement investment-oriented and trade policies to stimulate economic growth.
References
- S. Jiahao, R. L. Ibrahim, K. A. Bello, and D. M. Oke, "Trade facilitation, institutions, and sustainable economic growth: Empirical evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, vol. 34, pp. 201–214, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12630.
- E. Tee, F. Larbi, and R. Johnson, "The Effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the Ghanaian economic growth," Journal of Business and Economic Development, vol. 2, pp. 240-246, 2017. doi: 10.11648/j.jbed.20170205.11.
- H. F. KanKou, X. Enjun, and B. T. Mamadou, "The Causal Linkage between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Economic Growth in Mali: An Application of the ARDL bound Testing Approach," International Journal of e-Education, e-Business, e-Management and e-Learning, vol. 9, pp. 296-305, 2019. doi: 10.17706/ijeeee.2019.9.4.296-305.
- M. Safdari and A. M. Masoud, "External debt and economic growth in Iran," Journal of Economics and International Finance, pp. 322-327, 2011.
- O. O. Olaoye, "Sub-Saharan Africa's debt-financed growth: How sustainable and inclusive?," African Development Review, vol. 34, pp. 443–458, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12670.
- A. Bolanle, O. Fapetu, and A. A. Olufemi, "External Debt or Foreign Direct Investment: Which Has Greater Significant Economic Impact on Nigeria?" European Scientific Journal, vol. 11, pp. 185-195, 2015.
- S. C. Imran, I. Shumaila, and F. Fatima, "Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Some Selected Developing Countries," Review of Economics and Development Studies, vol. 3, pp. 111-123, 2017. https://doi.org/10.26710/reads.v3i2.170.
- Z. Hadhek and F. Mrad, "Debt and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 4, pp. 440-448, 2014.
- B. Mehdi, "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Southern Asia," Atlantic Review of Economics, vol. 2, pp. 1-14, 2012.
- P. Romer, "Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 94, pp. 1002-1037, 1986.
- UNCTAD, World Investment Report: Transnational Corporations and the Infrastructure Challenge. New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2008.
- E. O. Addo, "An Assessment of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Employment: The Case of Ghana’s Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, vol. 5, pp. 143–158, 2019. https://doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.56.143.158.
- K. Appiah-Adu, "The Impact of Economic Reform on Business Performance: A Study of Foreign and Domestic Firms in Ghana," International Business Review, vol. 8, pp. 463–486, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.032.
- MOF, Annual Public Debt Report for the 2022 Financial Year. Accra: Minister for Finance, 2023.
- IMF, IMF Executive Board Approves US$3 Billion Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Ghana. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2023.
- J. Dunning, "Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of International Business Studies, vol. 11, pp. 9–31, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490593.
- D. Ricardo, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London: John Murray, 1817.
- E. Heckscher and B. Ohlin, Interregional and international trade. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1933.
- P. Krugman, "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 253-268, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2.
- L. Alfaro, A. Chanda, S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and S. Sayek, "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 89-112, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00081-3.
- M. A. Kose, E. Prasad, and M. E. Terrones, "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 176-202, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.009.
- K. Evans, M. Samuel, and M. S. Prince, "Effects of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Ghana: the role of institutions," Economics of Development, vol. 20, pp. 23-34, 2021. doi:10.21511/ed.20(1).2021.03.
- A. Samuel and Z. Xicang, "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," International Journal of Business and Social Research, vol. 3, pp. 64-74, 2013.
- A. Safwat, A. Salah, and M. Elsherif, "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Economic Growth of Egypt (1980-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, pp. 74-85, 2021. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11762.
- M. A. Hafiz, A. Romana, M. N. Muhammad, and Y. Sajid, "Impact of FDI on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics, vol. 6, pp. 111-116, 2017.
- M. Z. Seiko, "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Economic Growth in Eastern Africa: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, vol. 3, pp. 146-161, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v3i1.1317.
- M. C. Alina, "The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth in Case of Romania," International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 12, pp. 81-88, 2020. DOI:10.5539/ijef.v12n12p81.
- K. M. Adeleke, S. Olowe, and O. O. Fasesin, "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Nigeria Economic Growth," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4, pp. 234-242, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v4-i8/1092.
- K. Malik, "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth of Pakistan," American Journal of Business and Management, vol. 2, pp. 190–202, 2015. https://doi.org/10.11634/216796061706624.
- N. Bouchoucha and W. Ali, "The impact of FDI on economic growth in Tunisia: An estimate by the ARDL approach," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, vol. 4, pp. 23-46, 2019.
- K. Faraji and M. A. Said, "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania," Advances in Management & Applied Economics, vol. 3, pp. 59-82, 2013.
- A. M.-T. Khaled and S. J. Mohammad, "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Jordan for the Period (2010-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 11, pp. 114-118, 2019. DOI:10.5539/ijef.v11n4p114.
- N. Paul, "Analysis of the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Nigeria," AFRREV, vol. 11, pp. 156-173, 2017. DOI:10.4314/afrrev.v11i4.13.
- S. M. Elwasila, "Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth of Sudan: Empirical Analysis (1969-2015)," Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, vol. 39, pp. 39-62, 2018.
- S. A. Mbah, O. C. Agu, and G. Umunna, "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, vol. 10, pp. 16-26, 2016.
- K. Yaya, "The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire," Cogent Economics & Finance, vol. 5, pp. 1-14, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1332820.
- R. Chandrashekar, "The effect of trade openness on economic growth: Some empirical evidence from emerging market economies," Journal of Public Affairs, pp. 1-18, 2020. DOI: 10.1002/pa.2081.
- M. A. Qazi and W.-Y. Lau, "Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from India," Journal of Business Economics and Management, vol. 16, pp. 188-205, 2015.
- V. U. Ijirshar, "Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth among ECOWAS Countries," CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 10, pp. 75-96, 2019.
- A. M. Khalid, "The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in the Case of Turkey," Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, vol. 7, pp. 51-61, 2016.
- B. Markus and L. Daniel, "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economica, vol. 82, pp. 1302–1323, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12160.
- M. Kwame, A. A. Ellen, and D. Daniel, "Trade openness and economic growth volatility: An empirical investigation," Cogent Economics & Finance, vol. 5, pp. 1-11, 2017. DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2017.1385438.
- S. Akutson, A. J. Messiah, and Y. D. Araf, "The Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing," Sumerianz Journal of Business Management and Marketing, vol. 1, pp. 37-46, 2018.
- S. Muhammad, "Effect of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, vol. 5, pp. 103-106, 2014.
- N. Nikolaos and S. Pavlos, "The Effects of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Greece. An ARDL Bound Test Approach," The Romanian Economic Journal, pp. 53-72, 2015.
- Z. A. Salyha, R. S. Mah, and P. Sabiha, "The Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," iRASD Journal of Economics, vol. 4, pp. 78-87, 2022. https://doi.org/10.52131/joe.2022.0401.0062.
- M. H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith, "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 289–326, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
- Q. Thobekile, V. N. Edmund, and D. Isaac, "Linkages between foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in South Africa: Does exchange rate regime choice matter?" Latin American Journal of Trade Policy, vol. 13, pp. 59-86, 2022. https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-9368.2022.66007
- M. M. Rathnayaka, G. Epuran, and B. Tescașiu, "Causal Links between Trade Openness and Foreign Direct Investment in Romania," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 1-18, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14030090.
- Y. Hao, "The dynamic relationship between trade openness, foreign direct investment, capital formation, and industrial economic growth in China: new evidence from ARDL
- M. Z. Khalid, "The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in Pakistan; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Co-integration," Iran. Econ. Rev., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 675-705, 2020. DOI: 10.22059/IER.2020.77643
- Y. O. Ari, A. Jibir, and A. A. Hassan, "The Impact of Trade Openness and FDI on Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Revisiting the Unsettled Debate," Review of Market Integration, vol. 14, pp. 133–163, 2022. DOI: 10.1177/09749292221135326
- B. Mohammed and N. Ruslee, "Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth," Foreign Trade Rev., vol. 50, pp. 73-84, 2015. DOI: 10.1177/0015732515572055
- J. Ang, "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, vol. 35, pp. 4772–4778, 2007.
- T. Tong, J. Ortiz, C. Xu, and F. Li, "Economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in the E7 countries: a bootstrap ARDL bound test," Energy Sustain Soc, vol. 10, pp. 1-17, 2020. DOI: 10.1186/s13705-020-00253-6
- Y. C. Akinyemi, "Short- and long-run impacts of gasoline price and macroeconomic factors on road traffic safety in Nigeria," African Development Review, vol. 35, pp. 308–319, 2023. DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12710
- M. Pesaran and Y. Shin, "An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis," in Econometrics and economic theory in 20th century: the Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1999.
- P. Narayan, "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Appl Econ, vol. 37, pp. 1979–1990, 2005. DOI: 10.1080/00036840500278103
- R. Engle and C. Granger, "Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing," Econometrica, vol. 55, pp. 251-276, 1987.
- C. Granger, "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods," Econometrica, vol. 37, pp. 424-438, 1969.
- D. Dickey and W. Fuller, "Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root," Econometrica, vol. 49, pp. 1057-1072, 1981.
- P. Phillips and P. Perron, "Testing for a unit root in time series regression," Biometrika, vol. 75, pp. 335–346, 1988. DOI: 10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
- S. Daniel, C. Richmond, and E. Eric, "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Ghana: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of African Business, vol. 16, pp. 1-15, 2015. DOI: 10.1080/15228916.2015.1061283
- D. Agyapong and K. Bediabeng, "External Debt Stock, Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development: Evidence from African Economies," Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, pp. 81-98, 2019. DOI: 10.1108/JABES-11-2018-0087