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The Progress of the Hungarian Dairy Prices Between 2003 and 2017
23-35Views:81There were notable changes in the dairy industry from 2012 onwards that seriously affected the Hungarian dairy market. The main events were the introduction of the Milk Package in 2012, the beginning of the Russian import ban in 2014 and the abolition of the milk quota system in 2015. These events affected the development of the domestic dairy industry, and at the same time, the Hungarian dairy sector faces long term challenges. The aim of our research is to analyse the dairy price developments between 2003 and 2017. We compare the Hungarian producer and consumer prices over time and we analyse the relationship between the domestic prices and some of the international prices as well. We calculated the coefficient of variation, price ratios and correlation for different time periods. The results indicate that there has been a strong market integration between the domestic and the international market since 2003.
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The Situation of Dairy Industry
3-21Views:88The increasing household incomes change the volume and the structure of the human consumption. There is a strong correlation between the changes in diet and the rapid urbanisation. Moving to the urban area often coincedes with a higher level of lifestyle which in turn can decrease the share of the agriculture labor force. Nowadays, more than half of the population lives in urban areas, but this share can be 70% until 2050 (FAO, 2011). Milk and dairy products are major items in the changing consumption structure. The consumers with mostly starch based diets are likely to shift to higher added value products when their income per capita increases. Majority of these products are milk and dairy or meat products. On the supply side, weather shocks can abruptly change the production volume and as a supply shock, they may increase the food price volatility. In the recent years, the gap remained constant between the production and the consumption, thus food prices have decreased (FAO, 2017). Between 1960 and 2010, the population has increased by some 230%, while the meat consumption by 450% (from 65 million tons to 290 million tons) (OECD – FAO, 2017). While the meat production and export are expected to increase moderately, the EU milk production may expand by 1% and its share from the international agricultural trade will increase in the future. The EU’s dairy sector aims to achieve a more marketoriented framework, which affects the Hungarian stakeholders as well. The processing and retail segment can be characterised with high concentration and strong bargaining power in general. Dairy sector appears to be purely demand-driven. The level of the individual stakeholders’ cost price is not taken into account during the market’s price setting, which creates strong competition. In the next years, higher market competition and further concentration are expected. Market position will be determined by one’s competitiveness and the level of cooperation among the stakeholders.
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Economic Analysis of a Good Quality Hungarian Dairy Farm with Leading Technology
43-64Views:254The research includes an economic analysis of the dairy farm based on farm data, which makes it possible to assess the cost-income ratio and partial efficiency of each sector, assuming that it operates at a good production level, and in the case of assumed greenfield investments, economy based on dynamic indicators (NPV, IRR, PI, DPP). As many domestic dairy farms produce with the most advanced technology available, and their indicators do not lag far behind the best farms in Western Europe, the so-called analyses refer to “good production standards or practices”. The performed analysis is based on a deterministic simulation modelling created from a production plant’s primary data which uses its own database. Some of the research findings are supported by data and calculations, while others are based on expert estimates and expert opinions. Based on our investigations, it can be stated that the so-called most important specific natural, economic, and investment analysis indicators of the model plant following good production practice in the case of milk production are the following: Specific annual milk yield 11,000 kg/year; Production value: 1,548.5 thousand HUF/cow; Production cost: 1,312 thousand HUF/cow; Net income: 236.5 thousand HUF/cow; EBITDA: 404.6 thousand HUF/cow; Discounted payback period without investment subsidy: 11 year; Discounted payback period at 50% subsidy intensity: 6 years.
JEL codes: Q12, Q13 -
The Past, Present and Future of Probiotics
19-27Views:178The scientifically proven relationship between diet and health along with the continuously growing health consciousness of customers resulted in a fundamental change in social values and led to a pronounced demand for foods that support health and wellness. Probiotic products, especially dairy products containing active cultures represent a strongly growing area within the functional foods market. Although mankind recognized the importance of fermented dairy products in a healthy diet thousands of years ago, scientifically based modern methods of altering the bacterial composition of the gut flora have only evolved in recent decades. The reinforcement of commensal microflora with probiotics plays a key role in the balanced immune functions, increases the resistance against pathogens, improves the functions of digestive system and potentially facilitates the removal of carcinogens from the intestinal system. Consumer demand for probiotic products is growing strongly; while their global sales in 2010 were $21.6 billion, it rose to $49.4 billion by 2018. Nowadays, probiotic yoghurts account for 75% of global probiotic trade, other probiotic food products accounts for 16% and probiotic drugs accounts for 9%. However, based on current trends, the role of pharmaceutical products will gradually increase in the future, presumably at the expense of traditional probiotic dairy products. Furthermore, given that the elderly population is likely to be one of the most significant consumer groups in the probiotic trade in the Western and Far Eastern markets in the next 10-15 years, it may be necessary to re-design the innovation and product development strategy accordingly. Appropriate marketing strategy and communication also play a key role in ensuring the market success of probiotic dairy products in the future. Reliable and credible information play an important role in developing personal motivations, health-conscious lifestyle and positive consumer attitude toward probiotic food products.
JEL codes: D83, I10, L66 -
International Market Segmentation in Dairy Market
43-54Views:115The basis and primary condition of the production level worldwide is the stability of domestic consumption, therefore the size of milk production is determined by the domestic milk consumption apart from smaller or greater exceptions. The aim of this research is to accomplish an international market segmentation based on the volume of milk product consumption. Segment forming variables were the three-year average per capita consumption volumes of liquid milk, cheese (including cottage cheese), and butter in the particular national economies. 46 national economies and the European Union (EU28) were included in the research. After completing the segmentation, our further aim was to characterize the formed segments by the following macro factors: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, gross national income (GNI) per capita, life expectancy at birth, crude mortality rate, unemployment rate, and consumption expenditures of households as a percentage of gross domestic product. Based on our results, three clusters were identified that significantly differ from each other. The first cluster includes those countries where liquid milk, cheese, and butter consumption per capita are low. The second cluster contains those nations in which per capita consumption can be seen as medium level, Hungary is in this group. In the third cluster we can find countries with high per capita consumption compared to the sample. The formed segments show significant differences according to both GDP and GNI. In the case of segments with higher milk product consumption the means of GDP and GNI are significantly higher on purchasing power parity. In the countries where a higher proportion of gross domestic product is consumed the volume of milk product consumption is lower, while in those countries where a lower proportion of GDP is consumed, the per capita volume of milk product consumption is higher. We found a significant difference among the segments according to the life expectancy, too; life expectancy increases in line with the increase in per capita milk, cheese, and butter consumption. In case of the unemployment rate, we could not find any significant differences among the segments. To sum up, we can conclude that consumption of the examined product categories can be seen as medium in Hungary, i.e. our country belongs to the second segment. Beside Hungary, we can find seven further post-communist countries in this segment that shows the cultural similarity of the region. An important strategic task for Hungary is to increase milk product consumption by the means of communal marketing tools. The consumption of milk products can reach a stable growth path via an appropriate positioning and conscious communications. To reach this goal, the image of the category has to be put in order and healthiness and nutritional advantages of milk products have to be highlighted, then consumer misbeliefs have to be corrected.
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Online Marketing Possibilities of the Domestic Dairy Sector
55-65Views:146The online appearance of the local milk processing micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises is rather bare (e.g.: official website, social media site), so they are not really able to maintain the online information collecting and shopping demands of the Hungarian digital food-consumers. Without this active participation, consumers cannot be involved in the company processes, in spite of the fact that food related search for information and the eventual shopping are key elements in the willingness to turn consumers’ lifestyle towards a healthier way. We used primary and secondary marketing research methods. During the secondary data and information collection, we collected and arranged already available data. During our primary data collection we carried out a quantitative research which was based on the analysis of our secondary data collection. We made our company observation project, where we analysed the online appearance of the members in the local milk industry with the help of an observation sheet, based on the database of NÉBIH (National Food Chain Safety Office). The members of the dairy industry (88 companies) were filtered for factory types and processed species. Fifty-nine per cent of the milk processors provide a personal online platform for the users. A third of the related milk processors have Facebook account. In the examined sector, every second company refreshes its timeline, or adds new entries less often than monthly, which is an extremely low tendency. Based on the results, we can say that these processing companies have exclusively Facebook accounts within the different types of social media, and they are quite passive. With the previous observation, we took into consideration the methods and tools given to the examined companies in order to judge the involvement of the consumers in the company processes. The rate of this involvement was observed on a Likert 1 to 5 scale and the obtained results were disappointing and regrettable. The value was 1.93 in the case of milk processors with a website and/or Facebook account. The results strengthen our assumption that the local companies in the related sector are not eager at all, or only at a minimum rate to involve consumers in the company processes.
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Consumer Attitudes in the Probiotic Yoghurt Market - Netnographic Research
29-41Views:186The functional food market is constantly evolving, and food companies need to monitor changes in consumer attitudes in order to communicate health information effectively and ensure that their products truly meet consumer expectations. Since the use of online social networking sites (e.g., blogs, forums, newsgroups, image-sharing communities) has become commonplace and widespread today, online content is a ideal source of information for those examining consumer habits. The qualitative-type netnography, using ethnographic research techniques, contributes to the study of the culture of online communities by identifying consumer groups organized on the topic. In our research, we aimed to identify distinguishable and separable population groups in relation to the consumption of functional foods, namely probiotic dairy products, within blogs, forums, and other community arenas organized on online platforms. Our netnographic research highlights that consumers demand and actively seek out probiotic yoghurts, and that proper and understandable communication of the health properties associated with probiotic dairy products is particularly important. Consumer awareness and knowledge expansion play a key role in the market success of probiotic dairy products, but one of the biggest difficulties in the online space is the transmission of reliable, understandable and authentic information.
JEL codes: D83, I12