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• Methodologies in measuring risk of financial statements

  117-120

  Vilmos Wágner

  Views:

  69

  Aim of financial statements’ risk analysis is to optimally allocate the audit resources. That optimum point can be reached, if we achieve maximum possibility of recovery of material risks. There are more than one procedures exist for researching of optimum point or risk assessment in other word, and they are needed to use even parallel. In order to take into consideration effects of risk we need to measure them somehow. At risk assessments risks are usually some kind of result of impact and possibility. Knowledge and measurement of impacts and possibilities are far not enough for assessment of certain risks. In this study I will present a possible usable risk assessment methodology for financial audit activities with using Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT in the followings).

• Significance of risk assessment metric in audit of financial statements and reports

  215-225

  Vilmos Wágner

  Views:

  78

  Management and decision-support of today’s businesses require design and application of management reports based and high-end controlling systems. One of the main source of information for controlling systems is financial accounting that should be designed to support planning, controlling and monitoring systems. Financial and accounting information is essential for decision making support of organizations. Therefore
  eligible assurance is needed that these information are true and fair. Internal and external financial audits as assurance qualifiers are linking to the controlling systems through assurance. Weaknesses of and threats to controlling systems shall be recovered and communicated to the management during qualifying process. Recovering of threats should be based on risk analysis, assessment. In this study I would like to present some methods and tools of risk assessment of financial reports, statements and a way on they can be further developed.

• A practical means of setting the scene for evaluating aggregated absorption risk in EU co-funded programmes related to project failure

  63-66

  Balázs Mezősi

  Views:

  111

  The main purpose of the mid-term evaluation of grant programmes is to assess relevance, progress, effectiveness and efficiency. There are several methodologies, tools and techniques applied in various evaluations to assess these programme aspects. An important area of the evaluation of both the financial progress and the effectiveness of the programme is to evaluate the risk of absorption which is indicated by various factors, inter alia risk of supported project failure. If a project fails in any EU co-funded programme in the stage of preparation or implementation, then the fund already committed to that particular project (assumed to have already been absorbed or “spent”) is to be reused again or is to face decommitment (funds have to be paid back to the EU). There are strict EU regulations governing the time scale of this re-use (n+2, n+3 rules), therefore it is of major importance to assess the risk severity (measured as the resultant of the volume of grant at risk and the chance of project failure) and build up an early warning mechanism which indicates if the risk reaches a critical level that requires immediate intervention.

• Assessment of Environmental Susceptibility/Vulnerability of Soils

  62-74

  György Várallyay

  Views:

  91

  Soils represent a considerable part of the natural resources of Hungary. Consequently, rational land use and proper soil management – to guarantee normal soil functions – are important elements of sustainable (agricultural) development, having special importance both in the national economy and in environment protection.
  The main soil functions in the biosphere are as follows: conditionally renewable natural resource; reactor, transformer and integrator of the combined influences of other natural resources (solar radiation, atmosphere, surface and subsurface waters, biological resources), place of „sphere-interactions”; medium for biomass production, primary food-source of the biosphere; storage of heat, water and plant nutrients; natural filter and detoxication system, which may prevent the deeper geological formations and the subsurface waters from various pollutants; high capacity buffer medium, which may prevent or moderate the unfavourable consequences of various environmental stresses; significant gene-reservoir, an important element of biodiversity.
  Society utilizes these functions in different ways (rate, method, efficiency) throughout history, depending on the given natural conditions and socio-economic circumstances. In many cases the character of the particular functions was not properly taken into consideration during the utilization of soil resources, and the misguided management resulted in their over-exploitation, decreasing efficiency of one or more soil functions, and – over a certain limit – serious environmental deterioration.
  Soil resources are threatened by the following environmental stresses:
  – soil degradation processes;
  – extreme moisture regime;
  – nutrient stresses (deficiency or toxicity);
  – environmental pollution.
  Environmental stresses caused by natural factors or human activities represent an increasing ecological threat to the biosphere, as well as a socio-economic risk for sustainable development, including rational land use and soil management.
  The stresses are caused by the integrated impacts of various soil properties, which are the results of soil processes (mass and energy regimes, abiotic and biotic transport and transformation and their interactions) under the combined influences of soil forming factors. Consequently, the control of soil processes is a great challenge and the main task of soil science and soil management in sustainable development.
  The efficient control of these processes necessitates the following consecutive steps:
  • registration of facts and consequences (information on land and soil characteristics, land use, cropping pattern, applied agrotechnics, yields, with their spatial and temporal variability);
  • evaluation of potential reasons (definition and quantification of soil processes, analysis of influencing factors and their mechanisms);
  • assessment of the theoretical, real, rational and economic possibilities for the control of soil processes (including their risk-assessment and impact analysis);
  • elaboration of efficient technologies for the „best” control alternatives (best management practice).
  Scientifically based planning and implementation of sustainable land use and rational soil management to ensure desirable soil functions, without any undesirable environmental side-effects, require adequate soil information. In the last years such data were organized into a computer-based GIS soil database in Hungary, giving opportunities for the quantification, analysis, modelling and forecasting of the studied environmental stresses and for the efficient and scientifically based prevention, elimination or reduction of environmental stresses and their unfavourable ecological and economical consequences.
  Special attention was paid to the assessment of various soil degradation processes, as: (1) soil erosion by water or wind; (2) soil acidification; (3) salinization and/or alkalization; (4) physical degradation (structure destruction, compaction); (5) extreme moisture regime: drought sensitivity and waterlogging hazard; (6) biological degradation; (7) unfavourable changes in the plant nutrient regime; (8) decrease of natural buffering capacity, (9) soil (and water) pollution.
  The actions against undesirable environmental stresses and their unfavourable consequences are important elements of sustainable, efficient, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound crop production and agricultural development. These are joint tasks of the state, decision makers on various levels, the land owners, the land users and – to a certain extent – of each member of the society.

• Production and economic risk analysis of pig fattening

  171-176

  Angéla Soltész

  Views:

  124

  I prepared a “model farm” producing fattening pigs in order to examine the main risk of production and market factors affecting the profitability of fattening pig production. Values of body weight (at the beginning of fattening and at the end of fattening), mortality rate, feed conversion ratio (FCR) of fattening pig as well as the main cost and price data were recorded as the input data of the model. Production value per unit, production cost per unit and income per unit were used as output. The Monte-Carlo simulation was used in the model for risk assessment. Based on the results of the analysis, it was concluded that the production value per unit was most affected by the selling price of fattening pig (ß=0.972), the production cost per unit were most influenced by the body weight at the beginning of fattening (ß=0.567) and the feed conversion ratio (ß=0.537), in addition, the change of the income per unit was most determined by the previously factors.

• The Role of the Digital Terrain Models in the Assessment of Surplus Water Risk at the Szolnok-Túri Plain

  47-51

  Károly Tóth

  János Tamás

  Tibor Bíró

  Views:

  110

  The environmental factors to which surplus water can be assigned (topography, soil, groundwater, vegetation etc.) can be subject to special analysis and the randomness of the occurrences can be limited. The results of these procedures are surplus water risk maps of the areas, which can be utilised in land use planning. The risk map of the research site was created with overlaying digital category maps of the determining factors (hydraulic conductivity, convexity, critical probability of ground water level and land use).

• Comparison of Scab Warning Systems in Integrated Apple Production

  53-57

  Imre Holb

  Views:

  61

  In the present study, the suggestions for infection risk and sprays of the most frequently used PC-based scab warning systems (RIMpro and WELTE) and the conventionally used Mills table as a reference were compared in integrated apple production. The efficacy of the spraying programs based on the three different warning systems was evaluated by assessment of apple scab incidences during primary infection periods.
  13 and 11 Mills infection periods were detected in 2000 and 2001, respectively, during primary infection periods (from 15 March until 5 June). Taking into consideration the heaviness of Mills infection periods, 11 and 9 sprays were applied in 2000 and 2001, respectively. The two PC-based scab warning systems detected 1-4 less infection periods and suggested 1-3 less sprayings compared to the numbers of infection periods and sprays according to the Mills table. Our results proved that the 9-11 sprays according to the Mills table could be reduced to 7-9 sprays by RIMpro scab warning systems which did not reduce the efficacy and did not increase the symptoms of leaf and fruit scab significantly. The WELTE scab warning systems detected generally one or two more infection periods and suggested one additional spray compared to RIMpro warnings and sprays.

• Complex assessment of inland water fish stocks

  74-80

  László Stündl

  Views:

  81

  In the domestic fish production, natural waters have yielded for several years about 7-8 thousand tons. This, from the point of view of outputs, considering the almost 130 thousand hectares of natural water, is rather low, it means approximately 55-60 kg/ha mixed fish.Although the various natural waters can differ significantly on the basis of yields, yet on the majority of the territories, the results were low. In the case of our extensive still waters and rivers, the reason can undoubtedly be found in the combined effect of the lack of the possibility of reproduction of the fish stock and the over-fishing. Fishery built on planning supposes the best possible knowledge in the given circum stances of the parameters of the water area and its fishstock. Lacking this knowledge, it is not possible to establish the optimal use fulness of the resources, what is more, the management can make faulty decisions – as a result of a lack of information -, which can risk the success of later activities.
  It is known that many factors have an impact on the success of the fishery, as well as some information in connection with the water area and the fish stock are necessary, the knowledge of which make it possible to manage the fishery in a planned way. One part of the information is available, while the other part is incomplete or not deep enough. The necessary data are dissimilar depending on their nature, can be obtained from different places, by different methods.
  As the first step for executing the field surveys and processing data, I developed a complex model, which contains in a unified system the steps of estimating the fishstock. I made the sampling on the basis of this. Part of the model is a fish faunistic survey, as well as a morphological survey of the water area. The information gained from these are important for making more accurate the system of devices of the samplings for stock estimation (duration, number of net-rows) and for assigning its place (places representing the best way the physical characteristics of the given water area). The major stages of stock-survey: A) faunistic survey, B) physical survey of the bed, and C) sampling with the help of gill-nets. This is followed by the evaluation by the computer module.
  The results of the research create a methodological and technical background for the fish faunistic and population biologic surveys still performed in different ways in our country, and by applying these methods together, all basic information about natural waters which help decision-making concerning fisheries can be obtaine deffectively.