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The economic risk analysis in the case of agricultural enterprises
107-116Views:112The company’s activity, profitability and growth potential are influenced by risk and uncertainty derived from the economic environment. The principal thing that makes difference between risk and uncertainty is the capacity to be quantified, and then the risk can be measured, whereas uncertainty is not. Specific risk types of agricultural enterprises are on the one hand the economic risk and specific risk arising from the main agricultural activity. The economic risks include financial risk categories like market risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and operational risk. Macroeconomic risk manifest also a significant influence to the company and the importance of taking into account of this, importantly increased in recently years. In present paper, I quantified the total risk of company by using financial and operating leverage indicators. The company’s growth was characterized with internal growth rate and sustainable growth rate. The present research aims to explore risk and growth level of agricultural companies and grouping companies by different characteristics. In present analysis I have used cluster analysis. From the results I can summarize, that the agricultural enterprises growth is made by using internal financing resources and their financial leverage level is lower that operating leverage level.
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Managing risk using real options in company’s valuation
125-132Views:133The valuation of company is very important because provides information about the current value/situation of company, and through this, provide the opportunity of choosing the best company’s growth alternatives. The future strategic decisions are characterized by lack of knowledge, information, so all measures of company’s growth are closely linked with uncertainty and risk. The company’s valuation process is also related with uncertainty and risk. The risk may result both from the assessed assets and the technique used. In literature, we could find three approaches for risk management: capital budgeting based method, methods based on portfolio analysis and real options approach of risk management. Among them, the real options based methods is the most revolutionary approach for risk management. The advantages of the method, consists in the fact, that the process of establishing strategic decisions integrates the possibility of reversibility, delay and rejections, which isn’t it possible at two previous methods. The method also takes into account the total risk of company, so both the company-specific and systematic risk. In this study, I have used one of the best-known real option based method, the Black-Scholes model, for determining the option’s value. Determination of option value is based on the data of enterprise, which was tested Monte Carlo simulation. One of the basic assumptions of the Black-Scholes model is that the value of option is influenced by several factors. The sensitivity of option’s value could be carried out with so-called “Greeks”.. In the study the sensitivity analysis, was carried out with indicators Delta (Δ), Gamma (Γ) and Vega (ν). The real options based risk management determinations were performed in the R-statistics software system, and the used modules are 'fPortofio' and 'mc2d'. By using of real options method, I have calculated the average value of company capital equal with 38.79 million. By using simulation was carried out 1000 runs. The results of this show a relatively low standard deviation, small interquartile range and normal distribution. In the calculation of indicator Delta, could be concluded the value of company moves in 0.831 proportion to the price of options, the standard deviations of index is low, so the real option based method could be used with success in company’s value estimation. The Gamma index shows the enterprise value is sensitive just for large changes. The result of Vega reflects the value of option, so the company’s value volatility, which is small in this case, but this means a volatility of value. In summary, we can conclude that the call options pricing model, well suited for the determination of company’s value.
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Stability and development of Transdanubian agricultural enterprises
77-82Views:104Personal fulfilment, financial security, flexibility, relationships, information, rules - these are all hallmarks of entrepreneurship. Furthermore, one more important factor should be added to the list, which enables satisfaction resulting from reliable income and self-fulfillment: this is openness. An open mind to changes, to novelties, and to the workforce is necessary. The central question of the present research is how to effectively develop Hungarian small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises, especially in the Transdanubian region, by utilizing these factors. In addition to production, institutional and price risks, agricultural enterprises, like other sectors, are also affected by massive labour shortages and resource-intensive development objectives. In the research, primary agricultural producers, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises were surveyed through questionnaire in the second and third quarters of 2019. Using the snowball method, both the development opportunities and the risks were mapped in this sector, mostly among growers. The research results show that there is a correlation between satisfaction and development and favorable workplace relationships. These correlations were presented by demonstrating the relationship between technological development, income satisfaction, stable job creation, and the need to try new developments. However, there seems to be an invisible boundary to development in the examined field, which may stem from uncertainty, and yet, it is important to maintain development and learning activity so that the right knowledge and know-how is available to the business when needed. Since the results show that there is a lack of openness to new technologies among the farmers in the studied region, and this may pose a problem in the future in terms of meeting the expectations of precision farming, it is recommended to focus on innovation in the agricultural sector in Hungary.
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Examination of the Effect of Transaction Costs in the Hungarian Beef Sector
212-223Views:63technical and economic characteristics, which give rise to high levels of uncertainty and greater control in the supply chain. In order to investigate the role of different transaction costs in marketing behavior, we carried out research in the central region of Hungary among beef retailers and wholesalers. This research is based on primary data collection and examines the motivation of choices in the beef sector on distinction among different marketing channels and the role of transaction costs in procurement. Since this case can be regarded as a qualitative choice situation the hypothesis that transaction cost’s variables are significant is judged by the application of multinomial logit model in order come up with the variables that can influence the supply chain structure and the choice of different marketing channels. This analysis enabled us to explore the structure in data and confirm or reject the expected interrelations of causative variables. Our
1 A szerző témavezetője Dr. Fertő Imre.
2 A kutatás az OTKA F038082 sz. „Vertikális koordinációs és integrációs modellek az élelmiszer-gazdaságban” c. programja keretében valósult meg.
3 A szerző köszöni Dr. Fertő Imrének és Dr. Szabó G. Gábornak, a Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Közgazdaságtudományi Kutatóközpont tudományos főmunkatársainak a kutatás során nyújtott nagy értékű segítséget. results partly support and contradict the basic predictions of transaction cost economics. -
Tools of promoting „energy-crops”
47-52Views:64The utilisation of renewable energy sources have come to front with the decreasing fossil fuel stocks, the unsolved problems and fears of nuclear energy and so the cumulating energy dependence. In Hungary the potential of biomass is the largest in renewable energy sources.
During our examinations, we analysed the promotion of producing energy crops in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county. With the examination of the territories involved in energy crop subsidies it can be stated that the energy crop subsidy had its promoting role only on those areas where because of the bad soil conditions the energy crop producing is more profitable than other alternative (non energy) crops.
The expected growth rate of energy plantations will be low, according to the low rate of subsidy intensity (40-60%). The uncertainty of direct area payments decreases the calculability that cuts back the favour of investment in short rotation forestry planting. -
A study of the changes in management tasks
39-44Views:90Determining the scope of management is difficult owing to the terminological uncertainty, which can be experienced often. The terms of management theory are interpreted differently not only by the general public but also by the highly recognised specialists, researchers, and instructors of this special area. The reasons for this can be found in historical preliminaries, the different social environment, attitude and approach. The definitions and the content of the terms have been modified and developed in parallel with the social and economic changes (Berde, 2001). The consequences of the economic changes of the past decade have significantly affected the conditions for the operation of management, the management structures, the ranking and importance of management tasks. The differentiating of corporate sizes, the increase in the number of small and medium-sized enterprises, the simplification of the production structure, the decrease in management levels, the strengthening of proprietary positions, and the continuous changing of the market economic environment are all influences that also affect, determine and continuously modify the management tasks.
Everyone knows what a manager does. Still, it is not easy to determine what it does all day as his or her work is such a complex activity where the management tasks are present in a complex way, weaved into each other. Nevertheless, the separate management tasks appearing in the management activity can be defined well, can be separated from each other clearly, enabling us to study and analyse each management task separately.
Based upon the findings of a face-to-face questionnaire survey, this essay aims to present that, according to the managers, to what extent the judgement of management tasks has changed and to what extent the applied management tasks specialise based upon the extent of relation to the company. -
Present situation and future prospects for Hungarian fruit and vegetable sector
31-38Views:71Changes in people’s lifestyles and the emergence of nutritional science have created favorable opportunities for a boom in fruit and vegetable consumption, which have been fully exploited by the adaptive fruit producer and exporter countries. Unfortunately, Hungary is not one of these countries. Affected by a number of uncertainty factors, the Hungarian fruit and vegetable sector has fallen behind international trends, seeking opportunities for survival (Erdész, 2007).
The impacts of the country’s accession to the EU have been more adverse than expected. While no administrative measures are used to control production and the increasing competition and import have put Hungarian producers to a loosing position. The cooperation producers, the well-organized work of professionals and the coordinated activity of producers marketing organizations may resolved some of the problems affecting the sector.
The fruit and vegetable sector can also anticipate significant changes during the new seven-years budget period of the CAP reform.
With the new drat reform of the sector, the European Commission intends to simplify the common organization of the fruit and vegetable market, improve competitiveness, increase market orientation, promote fruit and vegetable consumption and to continue the environmental efforts.
Hungary has had great expectations concerning the reform of market regulation, but the Commission proposal didn’t bear out the expectations, because the new proposal includes insignificant changes in important issues and fails to provide sufficient additional resources for the catching up of he new member states.