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Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
Published May 30, 2009
79-85

This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment o...f enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed. It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.

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Determinants of credit access of cocoa farmers
Published December 31, 2019
73-78

Access to credit is one of the critical areas that are of prime interest to development practitioners, agribusiness entrepreneurs and agricultural economists, mainly access to credit by farmers in order to increase their production and also reduce poverty. This study sought to analyze the determinants of credit access among cocoa farmers in the... Asunafo North of the Ahafo Region of Ghana. The multistage sampling procedure was used to collect data from 100 cocoa farmers with the aid of a questionnaire. Sources of credit, factors influencing access to credit, and constraints to credit were analyzed with the aid of descriptive statistics, multiple linear regression, and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance respectively. The results of multiple linear regression revealed that, age, marital status, education, experience, and family size were significant factors that influenced access to credit. The constraints analysis with the aid of Kendall’s coefficient of concordance showed that, high interest rate was highly ranked with a mean score of 1.93 whilst the need for a guarantor was least ranked with a mean score of 7.40. Based on the results, the study recommended that a policy aimed at expanding formal and semi-formal financial institutions credit portfolio to embrace cocoa farmers by finding alternative to collaterals and also reducing the interest rate will improve credit access with a positive externality effect of poverty reduction among cocoa farmers in the study area.

JEL Classification: Q14

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