production economics; farm management; agricultural policy; agricultural environmental issues; tourism; regional planning; rural development; methodology; marketing of agricultural and food products; international trade; development; sport management
The general objective of this paper is to present the world importance of dairy sector and to illustrate present tendency of milk production, consumption, trade and prices mainly based on FAO data base. World milk production was 711 million tonnes in 2010 and it is expected to increase in the future. The most significant milk producers are the EU(27), the United States and from the Asian countries, India and China. Developed countries give one-third of world milk production, while more than two-third of world dairy herd can be found in developing countries. Milk production growth is a future tendency mainly in China, India, Pakistan, Argentina and Brazil. The average level of consumption of milk and milk products is 103,6 kg/capita/year and it will increase in developing and developed countries as well. The ratio of international trade of milk and milk products to production is 6 percent and itmay expand in the future. New Zealand, the EU(27), theUnited States andAustralia are themajor exporters. There is a strong demand formilk andmilk products among others from the Asian countries, the Russian Federation,Algeria,Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the United States.Analysis of world market price of the most important dairy products it represents a strong recovery from last year, but it still remains 20 percent below its peak value in early 2008. However prices have doubled compared with prices of period of 2002–2004.
Although the dairy market crisis eased in 2011, Hungarian dairy farmers still find it difficult to produce milk profitably. As a result of the crisis, many dairy farmers abandoned milk production or reduced the size of their dairy herds in 2009 and 2010. Today, many of farmers are also considering ceasing production, in spite of the fact that the global dairy industry is facing an upturn. A dairy farm can operate profitablyy in three ways: 1) if it can reach a relatively high level of producer price 2) if it can increase milk production per cow 3) if it can achieve a relatively low cost of production. In the present study, I primarily analyse the development of the Hungarian producer price of raw milk in international comparison. Next, I list those factors which directly or indirectly influence the producer price of raw milk. Finally, I examine the relationship among disposable income, milk consumption and milk price. Since the start of 2009, the dairy market has been confronted with a period of extraordinary law prices. After bottoming out, prices had begun to slowly stabilise during the second half of 2009. By the end of that summer, international prices had started to strengthen and the last quarter of 2009 was characterized by a steady rise in prices. The strong recovery in prices experienced after 2009 was triggered by increased demand, mainly from oil exporting countries, but also from China.
The price increase, however, reflected a significant increase in input costs in Hungary; the high level of feed prices and the unfavourable change in the macroeconomic environment must be stressed. The rising excise duty on diesel fuel and the VAT increase had a direct impact on Hungarian dairy farmers. These negative factors have increased the costs of the sector, narrowing the ability of those active in it to operate efficiently.
According to the Free Trade Agreement with Central America, Dominican Republic and United States signed in 2008, milk import tariff reliefs will stagger down from 59,4% to 0% by 2025. This study determined milk demand and supply curves in the Costa Rican domestic market. Several variables and two different models were conducted to estimate milk demand and supply: Ordinary Least Squares and Two Stages Least Square simultaneous equations. In both cases, demand was estimated by income and milk prices as independent variables; while supply was estimated by input and milk prices. Nonetheless, the best fit was obtained by TSLS model because it accounts for endogeneity among price and quantity. Based on this model, if domestic prices are supposed to decrease due to increasing quantities of imported lower-priced milk, then national demand would increase (9% average) and national production is expected to decrease (26% average). The gap between national milk demand and supply is expected to be filled by milk imported from United States; assuming 0% tariff, no transaction costs and constant share of exports within national production.
JEL Classification: F1, Q17
To examine and compare the technical efficiency of dairy sector and the beef sector, this research introduced the main indicators of milk and beef production in the world, EU and Hungarian aggregates. Based on the data it can be said that the milk and beef production of Hungary does not occupy any significant position in the world as well as in the European Union neither today nor even in the past. If Hungry must compete in the European counties and international market, their dairy sector must focus to increase of their production efficiency as the key breakthrough point. This paper we compared technical efficiency of both dairy and beef sectors in total, for the year 2014 and 2015 separately and based on the farm size. The specific objectives of the research are: comparing dairy and beef farms efficiency in Hungary. Based on the results, we can determine which sector in Hungary is more effective. The second objective is to compare the efficiencies of both the sectors in 2014 and 2015 separately and from the results we can determine which year was more effective in terms of production efficiency and the third objective of the research is technical efficiency comparison of certain economic sizes for both sectors. In the research, we used (KOVACS, 2009) deterministic (DEA) model adapted to the Hungarian dairy farms and beef farms. For the dairy farms milk and dairy products as well as meat (other income). The input factors originated from the domestic AKI - FADN database. Summarizing the results of the research it can be conclude that the dairy sector is more effective than the beef sector in Hungary. In terms of years compared 2014 was more effective for both sector as compared with 2015. In regards to the farm size almost the same result in evaluating the scale of efficiency, which means that large economies can in most cases, manage resources more efficiently than small farms. In the examined years, based on the results of the DEA model, the VRS technical efficiency of the test for these two years was 72.90% for the dairy farms and 63.60% for the beef farms, which means that the dairy sector is more efficient than the beef sector in Hungary. The VRS technical efficiency of the research was 82.10% in 2014 and 75.10% in 2015 for the dairy farms and 77.50% in 2014 and 68.90% in 2015 for the beef farms, which means that both the dairy sector and the beef sectors followed the same trend and were more efficient in 2014 compared to the efficiency in 2015. The large size dairy farms were most effective in Hungary in the examined period (90.90%). VRS technical efficiency for small farms is 88% and the total number of small, the technical efficiency medium farms was 72.80% For the beef sector VRS technical efficiency for small farms is 71.30% and the technical efficiency medium farms was 74.40% and 70% of the beef meat producing farms in Hungary are medium sized. So, the conclusion is the small size dairy farms have a higher VRS efficiency than the small size beef farms whereas medium sized beef farms had higher VRS efficiency than the medium size dairy farms. As a conclusion, both dairy and beef sectors in Hungary have the potential to overcome technology and knowledge constraints and attain the upmost attainable productivity level through improvements in; farmer volume of production i.e. output, beef cattle technologies, and advertising, and the efficiency of the technology transfer process.
JEL Code: Q13
Ukraine belongs to the TOP 20 global producers of milk. Despite its position, the Ukrainian dairy industry is suffering from a permanent deficit of raw milk supplied for processing. on average, in 2007–2011 over half of the produced raw milk did not reach the processors. one of the reasons behind this lasting trend is that the structure of initial production of raw milk is dominated by households (having a share of 80%); the latter produce milk mostly for their own consumption and leftovers are sold at marketplaces where they can get more attractive prices. nevertheless, already today we observe results of largescale investments into the industrial production of milk made in the last few years. This article stresses an important place of the dairy industry in the agriculture of Ukraine, as it provides the population of vital food products, many of which are strategic in the export potential. Authors present essential characteristics of the concepts “agro-industrial integration” and “agroholding”, discloses their role and place in the agrarian sector of the economy, and justifies the necessity of the creation an integrated production in the Ukrainian dairy sub-complex. The study aims at identification and description of latest trends in Ukraine’s dairy market. Moreover, authors present a successful Ukrainian example of Milkiland N.V. as one of the TOP 5 players in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) dairy market.
Hungarian dairy farms went through significant changes in past two decades. The most significant changes were caused by our accession to the European Union in 2004. In Hungary milk production remarkably declined after EU accession due to the decreasing level of support and decreasing milk prices. Size of our dairy herd has been practically reducing since the political transformation (1989); meanwhile the relative yields per cow have been continuously increasing. Relatively low prices, high production costs and tightening quality requirements ousted several producers – mainly small farms - from the market in past years. Feeding cost represents the highest rate in cost structure of production, but animal health expenditures and various losses are also significant. Applied technology of the Hungarian dairies lags behind theWestern-European competitors’; in addition they have handicaps in efficiency and product innovation. Moreover Hungarian milk and milk product consumption is about half of the Union average. In 2007 at the University of Debrecen the opportunities and the problems of this sector were discussed in the framework of a research and development project entitled “Project-generating based on sector-specific innovation”.At this workshop farmers, experts and advisers shared their ideas which were all gathered. The main objective of our paper is to provide useful information for the decision makers and the most important members of the sector. Using the practically successful ideas plus the ideas based on previous experience a new strategic concept was created. To reach the objective of this paper we collected, synthesized and analysed the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the dairy farms and performed a SWOT analysis. On the basis of this SWOT analysis we set up a well organised problem hierarchy which would help to identify the main weaknesses of the sector. This analysis gives a great framework for the researches and it also gives a useful tool for the decision makers to improve the competitiveness of the Hungarian dairy sector.
High yielder cows optimal feeding is always a major question in farm management. We attempted to find the optimal yield- and weight group in a Holstein_Freisian herd. Handled more than 2000 milk record samples and concluded that the optimal body weight is about 600-650 kg. Also step up from medium yielder to high yielder is more cost efficient than pushing the milk production over 30 kg milk daily. Our results show that fitness traits and body scores are major factors and every 50 kg of extra weight rises the forage cost in average of 0,11 €cents. The mid-weight cows produce 25 kg of milk daily but the herds are very heterogeneous. The solution should be smaller cows, homogeneous herds and optimized feeding.
The dramatic decline in consumption after 1990 was an important problem during the analysis of the sector. Even today, consumption is still below the degree that was before the political change, and significantly lags behind the EU level.The importance of this topic is emphasized by the fact that surplus milk could be marketed through the increased domestic consumption; this would create a more stable and calculable situation for farmers. Therefore, I considered it important to reveal what factors and by what shares influence the consumption of milk and dairy products. The relationship, time series and cross-sectional analysis based on national and international databases demonstrate the relationship between the consumption of milk and dairy products and the other determining factors of consumption in Hungary and in the EU-25 through diagrams. I draw the conclusion that there is a medium correlation between the development of the economy, the higher income level and the consumption of milk and dairy products. Just before our EU accession, the dairy sector was one of the most critical industries of Hungarian agriculture, which is why I chose this for my analysis. I regard as a new scientific result the econometric analysis of the asymmetric market conditions in the price transmission approach within our dairy sector between 1995 and 2003. I confirmed and quantified that the market is under an oligopoly and defined the direction of price adjustment. Furthermore, I regard as a new result in the price transmission analysis (also published in the article published with Dr. József Tóth), that the three possible dimensions (elasticity, a symmetry relations,lag) are analysed simultaneously.Therefore,a more sophisticated picture is given on price transmission. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages are verified by an example of a vertical coordination based on the horizontal cooperation in the dairy sector (Alföldi Tej Ltd).
During my investigations, I highlighted three innovations, all of which serve the production of a final product, sheep kefir. This product contains a unique added value and involves several innovational opportunities. I examined the complex economic analysis of the innovations and technological elements investigated with respect to revenues from the sale of sheep milk, sheep cheese (kashkaval) and sheep kefir. The kashkaval-type sheep cheese does not contain sufficient added value to cover the costs of innovational investments. Investigating the innovational activity for developing sheep kefir and for its market introduction, its cash flow balance becomes positive already in the second year after realization, and is able to generate significant profit.
This articles crutinizes the cost formation mechanism of milk and animal yield in dairy cattle-breeding in costs grouping conditions by physiological classification, it’s analysis allows to reveal "weak points " in production process of the enterprise and to direct point efforts to overcome negative consequences, and also enables to optimize and more exact prognosis of the company’s financial results.
This paper analyses the impact on investments of contractual arrangements between farms and agribusiness in the Armenian dairy sector. Our empirical evidence is based on a unique survey of 300 Armenian dairy farms. The dairy sector is of particular importance as it provides vital employment and income, in an environment of weak social security and scarce job opportunities. Furthermore, milk production is predominantly organized in small-scale farms, which are most likely to be affected by adversarial financial conditions and limited in their opportunities to raise resources to invest. The results show that a large share of milk producers in Armenia is actively investing to upgrade their farm business. Furthermore, investment activity is not limited to large dairy farmers as over 30% of respondents with less than eight cows have made dairy-specific investments. We find that the linkages between farms and agribusiness – and more specifically the support programs that agribusiness firms offer to their suppliers – have been crucial in stimulating this restructuring process at the farm level. Interestingly, farmers with a more exclusive relationship to the buyer and farmers that deliver to more internationally oriented buyers are more likely to receive support. On the other hand, buyers that operate in a more competitive market are less likely to provide support to their suppliers. These findings have interesting policy implications. On the one hand, our results point to the gains that can be made from openness to international firms. On the other hand, the negative competition effect indicates that buyers are unable to enforce repayment of the provided farm services in an environment where a lot of buyers are competing for the same supply. Policy makers should look at ways of improving the enforcement capability of dairy companies under these circumstances.
Corporate strategy has never been as important as it is nowadays. Markets are changing rapidly because of consumer demands, innovations, information flow and economic changes. Our paper concentrates on Hungarian dairy industry (hereinafter dairy) and four main objectives were defined to be analysed: (1) domestic dairy company features, (2) main strategic characteristics, (3) how companies’ strategy resonates on the consumer side and (4) companies’ financial background were analysed as well. A company database was made in order to prepare for the primary research and to understand better the nature of today’s market. B2B (26 companies) and B2C (503 people) surveys were used in order to gain primary data. In 2017 132 Hungarian companies were observed in milk processing, but 44% of the market participants are not present in dairy competition. It is a fairly fragmented market structure because 10-20% of the annual turnover is accumulated among the 80-90% of competitors. The factor analysis of the data proved that the dairy companies followed m strategies at the same time; and it is assumed that most of them are unconscious. Strategically, the majority of the dairy sector is not up-to-date and modern enough. SMEs sector management skills and strategic preparedness are considered to be out-of-date and insufficient. Strategic planning can possibly have an influence on financial results, which was only partly proved by the analysed criteria system. The production and use of own raw milk supplies might make companies experience financial benefits. Nearly 78% of the respondents would rather purchase goods made from own raw material. The willingness to pay a higher price for this was in average 5-15%.
JEL Code: L1, L66
The abolishment of the dairy quota system in the EU is expected to increase competition across dairy farms in Europe. Assuming a common price for milk in the EU, only the most efficient farms will survive in the new environment. The main objective of the research is to compare dairy farms in Germany, The Netherlands and Hungary about their technical efficiency. In the first part of the research, the efficiency is measured by partial efficiency indexes using one dimensional efficiency measuring. In the second part, the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) have to be used to measure efficiency in a multidimensional space, using six inputs and two outputs. It appears from the results that the highest efficiency farms are in the Netherlands, and then Germany and Hungary follow thus, we get that the most efficient farms are in the Netherlands with 84% efficient. The German farms are 76% efficient. The Hungarian farms are 68% efficient. With respect the abolishment of the dairy quota system, our results suggest that the Dutch farms are the most efficient, thus probably they will increase their production after the quota system. But because the size of the country we cannot expect dramatic changes in the European Dairy market. The Germans farms efficiency is lower, but their efficiency is also lower, so we won’t expect high increase about the dairy supply. The Hungarian dairy sector is not so efficient like the Dutch, and the size of the sector has also small among the European countries, thus if they want to survive the quota system demolishing, they have to increase their technical efficiency.
The study assessed the technical efficiency of Nigerian dairy farms. Information on 73 dairy farms was obtained from the General Household Survey (GHS Panel) for the year 2018-2019 wave, and the method of analysis employed include descriptive statistics and Data Envelopment Analysis Model. The findings show that not all the farms sampled are technically efficient, which means they can still utilize their input resources more effectively. The average level of technical efficiency of sampled farms was 83%; this suggests from the technical point of view that there exist an opportunity for expansion of milk production and revenue using the same level of inputs at present and putting to use effectively available technologies by 17%. Furthermore, results also show that farms that practice grazing systems, those located in the northern part of Nigeria and small farm sizes, have higher T.E. overall.
JEL Classifications: Q12, Q1, R15
The abolishment of the dairy quota system in the EU is expected to increase competition across dairy farms in Europe. Assuming a common price for milk in the EU, only the most efficient farms will survive in the new environment. The main objective of the paper is to compare dairy farms in Germany, The Netherlands and Hungary about their technical efficiency. In the first part of the research, the efficiency is measured by partial efficiency indexes using one dimensional efficiency measuring. In the second part, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) have to be used to measure efficiency in a multidimensional space, using six inputs and two outputs. It appears from the results that the highest efficiency farms are in the Netherlands, and then Germany and Hungary follow. If we want to eliminate the low sample size effect, we can assume a common frontier, which decreases the efficiency scores a bit, and makes the Hungarian results more reliable. With respect the abolishment of the dairy quota system, our results suggest that the Dutch farms are the most efficient, thus probably they will increase their production after the quota system. But because the size of the country we cannot expect dramatic changes in the European Dairy market. The Germans farms efficiency is lower, but their efficiency is also lower, so we won’t expect high increase about the dairy supply. The Hungarian dairy sector is not so efficient like the Dutch, and the size of the sector has also small among the European countries, thus if they want to survive the quota system demolishing, they have to increase their technical efficiency.