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The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia
Published December 30, 2015
83-92

Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “c...limate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

JEL classification: Q54

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Adaptations to potential impacts of climate change in the “New Hungary” Rural Development Programme
Published December 30, 2009
133-137

There are evidences that the climate is changing and the effects on agriculture and wildlife are discernible. Spring is occurring earlier and autumn later, all of which have impacts on agriculture and forestry. Climate change is also predicted to result in more frequent droughts, increased flooding in Hungary, but the relationship between agric...ulture and climate change is more complex. Climate change has physical effects on farming and farm based wildlife. Agriculture needs to adapt to climate change by exploring, which crops and farming systems are best adapted to the changed conditions. Land management also needs to adapt to preserve biodiversity by protecting valuable habitats and species and helping them in the changing environment. With better management, agriculture and forestry can also mitigate climate change by reducing direct greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry, by producing crops as a source of renewable energy and by protecting carbon stored in soils and in manure. The HRDP comprises of a series of funding based on the following overarching priorities: (i) enhance the environment and countryside, (ii) making agriculture and forestry more competitive and sustainable, (iii) enhancing opportunity in rural areas, whether in the farming sector or the broader rural economy. Actions discussed in this paper are based on the New Hungary Rural Development Programme (2007–2013) and focused on reducing the effects of climate change in rural area. Establishment of agro-forestry systems and integrated pest management help mitigation goals and increase climate change adaptation potential. Minimizing unwanted side effects of agriculture by reducing the use of fertilizer and increasing the safety for environment (soil, water, and air) and human health have positive effects on adaptation potential. Restoration of agricultural production though diversification of agriculture and pastures management, improvement in drain age and irrigation equipment are good examples of adaptation for climate change. Integrated production, which is oriented to controlled cultivation of crops, vine, fruits and vegetables, and improvement of animal rearing conditions to increase production standards and overall welfare are preferred and ecologically sound methods of adaptation.

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29
13
Water footprint in Hungary
Published November 30, 2012
83-91

More and more news report on water-related extreme environmental phenomena. Some of these are natural, which are often beyond the human race. But others are definitely due to anthropogenic effects. I think the water footprint index is able to highlight national and international water-use processes and gives us the opportunity of organizing a s...ustainable, consumer-, environmental- and governancefriendly management. 81% of the fresh water withdrawal is from surface water bodies in the EU. In Europe as a whole, 44% of abstraction is used for energy production, 24% for agriculture, 21% for public water supply and 11% for industry. Public water supply is confined to ground waters. To the water resources related human activity caused qualitative and quantitative amortisation will grow worse in the foreseeable future due to the climate change. Beside seasonal differences the sectoral differences are increasingly becoming critical between different areas, such as Southern and Western Europe. The former, wrong agricultural support system has worsened the situation since it gave financial aid for the used improper techniques of water-intensive crop cultivation. By today, this seems to be solved. Public water abstraction is affected by many factors, of which mostly are based on social situation and habits, but technological leakage receives a big role as well. Interesting, that for example the residents’water consumption in Eastern Europe decreased because price were raised and regular measurements were introduced. But in Southern Europe it increased due to tourism in the past period. Industrial water withdrawal decreased across Europe because of the decline of industry and the development of technologies. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), the Union needs a sustainable, demand-driven leadership which focuses on the preservation and use efficiency. This have already appeared in politics and legal administration as well. Current research calls the attention to the significance and difficulties of this kind of domestic estimation presented trough the water footprint calculation of bread and pork in Hungary. The received data indicate the domestic water consumption trends in a modern approach. There is no doubt for me about the urgent necessity of water footprint calculation because as a result innovative, sustainability supported environmental, social, economical, and political relationships can be created – not just on local, regional or national level, but on interregional, European and even global stage.

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Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries
Published December 30, 2015
75-82

Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model... is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.

JEL classification: Q11, Q18

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