The continuous weakening of Hungarian sheep sector and its low effectiveness in terms of value added have posed crucial problems in recent years.The focal problem has been partially caused by economic and market problems.Among these issues, mostly the poor mutton supply chain gives rise to difficulties; therefore the present study seeks to reve...al the factors/input variables which predominantly influence the generation of value added. We have constructed a model for the mutton product cycle to represent the relations of phases but mutton trade is not included.The most significant aim of our investigation was to identify the volume of value added generated during processing in various phases of the product cycle and the change of which inputs affected this volume. The received findings suggested that in case of capital uniformity the output of processing was mostly influenced by sheep progeny on the bottom level of the mutton product cycle.
The sheep sector is regarded to be a “black sheep” in Hungary, both in terms of economy and marketing. On one hand, the sector is not easily traceable as available relevant data are partial and infected by the effects of black market or underground economy; on the other hand, there are no clear, concrete statistical data or surveys on consu...mption either.
The present study attempts to dissolve the above anomalies and present findings by fact-based model calculations and actual marketing surveys. The fact-based model developed and used for more than 200 variables verifies the correctness of economic calculations. Original examinations were performed by Béla Cehla, doctoral candidate, in 2000–2011. The marketing survey, although not in full accordance with statistical requirements, was carried out in 2012 and it processed relevant data authentically.
The main conclusions are the following: It is clear so far that genetic basis should primarily be evolved in the industry, as it is the factor that mainly contributes to profitability and price-type factors come only following it. Genetic modification is achievable by changing breeds or crossbreeding. The findings of product chain level sensitivity analysis have provided clues that the added value generated in the sector is already determined during slaughter lamb production and progeny influences this value in approximately 80%. Critical points are feed conversion ratio and the relating price of lamb feed, which influence added values by 2.7–2.9%. The remaining factors affect added value through feeding costs, although not considerably.
The following activities can boost interest in the market of sheep products:
• Comprehensive market research
• Stimulation of cultural development by product-tasting, exchanging information and recipes
• Development of supply in accordance with demand
• Identification of target markets, positioning products
• Diversification of product range
• Community trade mark to guarantee excellent quality and Hungarian origin
• Selection of credible poster faces, organization of advertising campaigns
The competitiveness of the Hungarian sheep sector has been in steady decline for some time now. Crucial has been the problem that the value added in the sector is not generated in Hungary, as most of the produced lambs in Hungary leave the country with an average weight of 21 kilograms, with slaughtering happening abroad.A model has been constr...ucted for our investigations, which introduces the connections between the product cycle phases for mutton in Hungary. This model allows us to calculate the volume of gross value added generated within specific product cycle phases. We used Monte Carlo simulation for our examination, for which the Crystall ball software package was utilized, namely the OptQuest module, for optimization. First, we conducted an optimization of an experiment number of 500,000 for “Gross value added” in the case of the slaughterhouse. During the optimization, Easter, Christmas and August lamb ratio and ewe number, as well as progeny, were set as decision variables and examined as values of gross value added, the decision variables of which contribute to obtaining the best results. The gained decision variables were set in the model and a Monte Carlo simulation was run with an experiment number of 500,000, where only the values of the conditions were changed along the pre-set dispersion; the values of the decision variables were fixed. The most significant aim of our investigation was to identify the volume of gross value added generated during processing in various phases of the product chain and the change of which inputs affected this volume the most. The findings proved that, in the case of capital uniformity, the output of processing was most influenced by sheep progeny on the bottom level of the mutton product chain. This factor is followed by that of weight gain in the source material producing and fattening sub-modules, as well as the gross wage in starter lamb feed and meadow hay in the source material producing sub-modules. Contour plots helped to describe the connections between these factors. By using contour plots, the volume of gross value added might be forecast for various combinations of factors.
The competitiveness of the sheep sector in East Europe has been decreasing from year to year. The value added in the sector is not generated in the countries as a high proportion of the lambs are exported. For example, in Hungary, 95% of the lambs, unnecessary for replacement, are sold at an average weight of 21 kg and are slaughtered abroad. A... stochastic model was constructed to investigate the connections between the cycle phases of the mutton production. Three modules were distinguished, the lamb production, fattening and slaughtering-processing sub-modules. The aim of our study was to identify the gross value added generated in the three sub-modules and to analyse the main factors influencing its volume using the conditions in Hungary as an example. The major hypothesis of our research was that the profitability of the production chain is mainly determined by the breed. The results showed that, considering market prices, the gross value added in the processing module was mostly influenced by the number of lambs sold per ewe per year at the bottom level of the mutton product chain. The next most important factors were the weight gain in the lamb producing and fattening sub-modules and dressing percentage in slaughtering-processing sub-module. Contour plots were constructed which help to describe the relationship among analyzed factors. Using the contour plots, the gross value added for different combinations of these factors might be forecast.