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Systematic risk factors and stock return volatility
61-70Views:424This study analyzes the transmission of systematic risk exhaling from macroeconomic fundamentals to volatility of stock market by using auto regressive generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR-GARCH) and vector auto regressive (VAR) models. Systematic risk factors used in this study are industrial production, real interest rate, inflation, money supply and exchange rate from 2000-2014. Results indicate that there exists relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic factors and that of stock returns in Pakistan. The relationship among the volatility of macroeconomic variables and that of stock returns is bidirectional; both affect each other in different dynamics.
JEL code: C32, C58, G11, G12
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Analysis of the producer price of Hungarian raw milk in international comparison
27-32Views:155Although the dairy market crisis eased in 2011, Hungarian dairy farmers still find it difficult to produce milk profitably. As a result of the crisis, many dairy farmers abandoned milk production or reduced the size of their dairy herds in 2009 and 2010. Today, many of farmers are also considering ceasing production, in spite of the fact that the global dairy industry is facing an upturn. A dairy farm can operate profitablyy in three ways: 1) if it can reach a relatively high level of producer price 2) if it can increase milk production per cow 3) if it can achieve a relatively low cost of production. In the present study, I primarily analyse the development of the Hungarian producer price of raw milk in international comparison. Next, I list those factors which directly or indirectly influence the producer price of raw milk. Finally, I examine the relationship among disposable income, milk consumption and milk price. Since the start of 2009, the dairy market has been confronted with a period of extraordinary law prices. After bottoming out, prices had begun to slowly stabilise during the second half of 2009. By the end of that summer, international prices had started to strengthen and the last quarter of 2009 was characterized by a steady rise in prices. The strong recovery in prices experienced after 2009 was triggered by increased demand, mainly from oil exporting countries, but also from China.
The price increase, however, reflected a significant increase in input costs in Hungary; the high level of feed prices and the unfavourable change in the macroeconomic environment must be stressed. The rising excise duty on diesel fuel and the VAT increase had a direct impact on Hungarian dairy farmers. These negative factors have increased the costs of the sector, narrowing the ability of those active in it to operate efficiently. -
Profitability and efficiency – an analysis of the financial impact of the Szechenyi Plan in the Hungarian hospitality industry
51-56Views:150Continuous changes in the market and macroeconomic factors have made a significant effect on the tourism sector in Hungary. A heavily growing number of hotels could be observed in the past decade. The main question about the hotels built with high investment costs was their expected time of return. Keeping Hungary’s natural conditions in mind, is it more expedient to build new hotels or refurbish old ones? I was seeking answers for these questions during my work. My research was aiming to explore the impacts of the non-refundable subsidies – financed by the government – provided for new health and wellness hotel projects carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan. On the other hand, my study was expanded to the analysis of balance sheets and profit and loss accounts data of the hotels of Hungary according to their star (quality) rating. The major findings of the research: Considering high developmental costs subsidies play an important role in the hotel industry. It is impossible to carry out such investments using internal sources only. However, exclusive bank loans finance could drive insolvency so it is extremely risky. Non-refundable subsides provided for hotel investments created stable, countable payroll taxes and other forms of incomes for the country. In order to achieve more profitable operation, providing higher quality of services is indispensable. Taking Hungary’s conditions into account this can be reached more likely among four star rated hotels than any other star (quality) ranked establishments.
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Determinants of Mongolian Economic Growth
61-66Views:251Mongolia is the second largest landlocked country, which has unique economic condition. This paper aims to examine Mongolian economic growth from 2000 until 2016 and identify its determinants. The growth was studied based on the growth rate of National Domestic Product. Initially, 20 macroeconomic variables are chosen and tested for the economic growth determinators such as; unemployment rate, human capital index, import growth, inflation rate, export growth, and interest rate, etc. The results showed that the growth rate of dollar exchange, inflation rate, and the growth rate of export were the main factors (81.4%). Mongolian GDP per capita and poverty rate were compared with other Asian lower-middle-economies, which are classified in the same classification as Mongolia. An increment of average salary was adjusted by the inflation rate, which showed the purchasing power declined in 2015. Statistics of Central Bank of Mongolia, Central Intelligence Agency, World Bank’s statistics, and the statistics from National Statistics Office of Mongolia are used for the research.
JEL Classification: H0, H30, H6, H70
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