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The Developmental Possibilities for Methods of Real Estate and Farm Property Evaluation in Agriculture
Published May 4, 2004
241-247

Different methods for evaluating property have gained greater importance in agriculture since the change of regime. The open market evaluation could be the best method if the agricultural property had significant turnover, which could serve as a reliable comparison. However, there is no notable turnover, and selling is scarce. And, when there i...s some, the sales contracts are not available. On the other hand, the open market evaluation is almost the only one assessing method in Western Europe and in the United States. The matrix comparing market data in my methodological development helps to estimate the effects of the elements which determinate real estate value of farms.
Another method for evaluating farm property is the discounted future earnings. Enterprises are able to produce series of income continuously during their working periods, which can be considered as perpetuity. This is the base of the discounted future earning evaluation. Determination of income generating capacity is not an easy task. It is also difficult to choose the proper rate of capitalization. If this rate is higher than the usual level, the property will be underestimated. If it is lower, the property will be overrated. According to my calculations the profitability of certain farms of animal breeding may be evaluated under different operating conditions. Furthermore, the capitalisation interest rate may be determined in an objective way.
The problem of applying the depreciated replacement cost evaluation method is that there are big deviations among investment costs in tenders of contractors; moreover the estimations of special depreciation forms are rather subjective. One of the process’s greatest difficulties for reliability is that it is doubtful whether depreciated replacement cost could reach the real market value. The utilisation of this method may be spread further in the future by standardising average gross replacement cost of building as well as by measuring depreciation more objectively.

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Bioenergy production: are the objects realistic??
Published July 28, 2008
53-58

Currently we do not have the possibility to define our energy reserves, since we do not know the magnitude of extant material resources. The known petroleum (crude) supply will be sufficient for about 100 years at the longest, and according to the latest estimates in 2008 we will reach and even exceed the maximum level of oil extraction, and af...ter this it is going to decrease.
Hungary has good givens to go upon the way of sustainable energy economy according to experts, however a coherent government policy that lasts for not just one period is essential, and a sound economic- and agricultural policy is needed as well. According to the FVM’s under-secretary in Hungary more than 1 million hectares can be disposable for energy crop production. This would mean that 20 percent of the fields would be taken away from food production and on these fields energy crops would be grown. But we also have to take into consideration that the increase in energy plant production could happen at the expense of food production. If we would like to ensure the food for Hungary’s population from national sources we have to make calculations in determining energy need. In my research I set out the objective to determine the level of that specific turnover and marginal cost which supports the profitability of grain cultivation. With these indicators it is possible to analyze the economy and competitiveness of growing energy crops in the region of the North Plain. The alternatives of using cereals and rational land use should be also considered. A developing bio-fuel program can be a solution for the deduction of excess grain that is typical in Hungary for several years in the cereals sector. The pressure on the national market caused by excess grain can be ceased or moderated, and therefore the storage problems would decrease as well.

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Simulation of optimizing decisions and risk analysis in investment plans
Published November 15, 2007
160-164

Investments always contain risks, as data referring to the future are planned and uncertain. Therefore, besides feasibility analyses we need to perform risk analyses, as well. Through statistic simulation methods, our aim is to examine how uncertain and prospective data as risk factors affect investment-profitability indices. On the other hand,... our aim is to find out the optimal innovation – financing decisions by using decision optimizing
methods.

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