Based on standard econometric methods the article analyses the time series of fresh apple producer prices in domestic markets of Germany and Hungary. In Germany, as a consequence of high storage capacities the quantity offered in different parts of the season is relatively stable, that’s why only a rather limited price increasing can be detec...ted. In Hungary, as a consequence of the limited storage capacity this fluctuation is much more important. The modern methods of time series analysis (ARIMA models, stepwise regression) can be efficiently applied for forecasting of price movements.
The pathogen and weather components of apple scab disease progress were analysed in a three-year study, in two environmental-friendly production systems (organic and integrated) on cvs. `Idared', `Jonica' and 'Mutsu'. Linear regression analyses of transformed disease incidence and severity data and "area under the disease progress curves" (AUDP...C) were used for the analysis of the pathogen component. To evaluate the role of the weather component in apple scab epidemic, first, the weekly disease increase was determined at a certain week (n). Weekly disease increase was related to rainfall, relative humidity, Mills' wetness period, temperature and interaction between temperature and relative humidity. Five different periods were used in the analyses: i) week (n-1), ii) week n(n-1), iii) week (n-2), iv) week (n-1)(n-2) and v) week n(n-1)(n-2). In the analyses of the pathogen component, the best transformation function was the logistic one. Regression analyses showed that disease growth rates were higher for disease incidence and for the organic production system than for disease severity and for the integrated production system, respectively. Disease growth rates for leaf incidence were higher than fruit incidence on all the three cultivars. AUDPC values showed great differences in both leaf and fruit incidences among cultivars and between the two production systems. The results the of analyses of the weather component showed that the best relationships between disease increase and weather parameters were found for fruit incidence and leaf incidence in week (n-2) in the organic and integrated production systems, respectively. Results also demonstrated that in week n(n-1) temperature played a more important role in the fungus development than the water parameters (relative humidity, rainfall and leaf wetness). Consequently, infection process is significantly dependent on almost all weather parameters, but during the incubation period the most important weather parameter is the temperature. Results were compared with similar studies and biological interpretations of the analyses are discussed.
Progression of apple scab epidemic in six apple cultivars, including two current and susceptible (Gala Must, Elstar), two old (Egri Piros, Darusóvári), and two resistant cultivars (Relinda, Releika), were described and analysed in a two-year-study, in two environmental-friendly growing systems (organic and integrated). Curves of disease progr...ess, linear regression analysis of transformed disease incidence data and Area Under Disease Progress Curves (AUDPC) were used to characterise the epidemic processes of the selected cultivars. Cumulative disease progress curves showed continuous but asymmetrical scab development on the moderate or highly susceptible cultivars Gala Must, Elstar and Egri Piros, and on the tolerant or resistant cultivar Darusóvári and Relinda, in both systems. The cultivar Releika showed no symptoms either on fruit or leaf. In linear regression analysis, the best linearisation was given by logistic transformation. Adequate parameters leaf disease incidence rate, of obtained from a regression equation, were higher in the organic system than in the integrated system. Values of AUDPC showed great differences in leaf disease incidences among cultivars and between growing systems. AUDPC gave more differences for comparison of progresses of disease epidemic than growth rate of disease in different systems of disease control. Moreover, the obtained results were compared with similar studies on different pathosystems, and biological interpretations of the analyses are discussed below.